Skip to main content
The Globe and Mail
Support Quality Journalism.
The Globe and Mail
First Access to Latest
Investment News
Collection of curated
e-books and guides
Inform your decisions via
Globe Investor Tools
Just$1.99
per week
for first 24 weeks

Enjoy unlimited digital access
Enjoy Unlimited Digital Access
Get full access to globeandmail.com
Just $1.99 per week for the first 24 weeks
Just $1.99 per week for the first 24 weeks
var select={root:".js-sub-pencil",control:".js-sub-pencil-control",open:"o-sub-pencil--open",closed:"o-sub-pencil--closed"},dom={},allowExpand=!0;function pencilInit(o){var e=arguments.length>1&&void 0!==arguments[1]&&arguments[1];select.root=o,dom.root=document.querySelector(select.root),dom.root&&(dom.control=document.querySelector(select.control),dom.control.addEventListener("click",onToggleClicked),setPanelState(e),window.addEventListener("scroll",onWindowScroll),dom.root.removeAttribute("hidden"))}function isPanelOpen(){return dom.root.classList.contains(select.open)}function setPanelState(o){dom.root.classList[o?"add":"remove"](select.open),dom.root.classList[o?"remove":"add"](select.closed),dom.control.setAttribute("aria-expanded",o)}function onToggleClicked(){var l=!isPanelOpen();setPanelState(l)}function onWindowScroll(){window.requestAnimationFrame(function() {var l=isPanelOpen(),n=0===(document.body.scrollTop||document.documentElement.scrollTop);n||l||!allowExpand?n&&l&&(allowExpand=!0,setPanelState(!1)):(allowExpand=!1,setPanelState(!0))});}pencilInit(".js-sub-pencil",!1); // via darwin-bg var slideIndex = 0; carousel(); function carousel() { var i; var x = document.getElementsByClassName("subs_valueprop"); for (i = 0; i < x.length; i++) { x[i].style.display = "none"; } slideIndex++; if (slideIndex> x.length) { slideIndex = 1; } x[slideIndex - 1].style.display = "block"; setTimeout(carousel, 2500); } //

Donald Coxe at a 2008 conference.

Larry MacDougal/The Globe and Mail

Donald Coxe, one of Canada's best known stock-market prognosticators, plans to cease publishing his market letter.

For the past 20 years, Mr. Coxe has been issuing massive 10,000- to 12,000-word missives outlining his investing views, laced with a healthy dose of his conservative political philosophy. But at 76, he's decided to hang up his pen to concentrate on investment advice for the funds he helps manage.

December will mark the last issue of his Basic Points newsletter, which has recently been appearing once every two months.

Story continues below advertisement

As an investment writer, Mr. Coxe is best known for his view that the financial world is in the middle of a "commodity super cycle." That's a long period during which the prices of energy, food, metals and other raw materials rise – in the current instance, driven by the rapid growth of emerging economies.

Mr. Coxe said producing a market letter while also working as an investment strategy adviser at the Bank of Montreal, which distributes his newsletter, has been a strain.

"I'm only young compared to people like Warren Buffett," he quipped. "Other strategists have lots of young CFAs working for them. I don't have anything like that. I do my own work."

Mr. Coxe began his prognosticating career with Basic Points at one of BMO's forerunner firms, Nesbitt Thomson, back in October, 1992.

"I feel pretty good about the fact that it's managed to last for 20 years. In the financial world not many one-person publications survive that long," he said.

Although Mr. Coxe has worked as an investment strategist and money manager, he got into the writing end of the business to capitalize on the popularity of client reports he gave customers, which began to be circulated by hand throughout Bay Street.

He remains convinced that stocks benefiting from higher commodity prices are the place to be, although not all are equally desirable.

Story continues below advertisement

He's loaded up on agriculture-related shares and precious-metal investments in the funds he manages, but is cooler toward businesses producing base metals.

Crop prices have been on a tear because of poor harvests, leading to higher farm incomes and land prices, a boon "for those investing in agricultural stocks."

Mr. Coxe, who is now based in Chicago, likes precious metals because central banks in many advanced countries are expanding their balance sheets through the purchase of government bonds, in a bid to jump-start their flagging economies. He believes the action is the first step in paper-money creation and could lead to future inflation, which would lend support to precious-metal-related investments because they're perceived as a long-term store of value.

Mr. Coxe is cautious on the outlook for base metals. He says higher rates of economic growth will be required to produce better prices for those materials. Base metals have an additional drawback – existing supplies can be melted down and the material reused, reducing demand for new mine output.

Oil doesn't suffer from this drawback. Even though oil and gas supplies are expanding in the U.S. through new extraction technology, "I still feel much more secure owning shares of a good oil company than I would of the average manufacturing company."

Your Globe

Build your personal news feed

  1. Follow topics and authors relevant to your reading interests.
  2. Check your Following feed daily, and never miss an article. Access your Following feed from your account menu at the top right corner of every page.

Follow topics related to this article:

View more suggestions in Following Read more about following topics and authors
Report an error Editorial code of conduct
Tickers mentioned in this story
Due to technical reasons, we have temporarily removed commenting from our articles. We hope to have this fixed soon. Thank you for your patience. If you are looking to give feedback on our new site, please send it along to feedback@globeandmail.com. If you want to write a letter to the editor, please forward to letters@globeandmail.com.

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff. Non-subscribers can read and sort comments but will not be able to engage with them in any way. Click here to subscribe.

If you would like to write a letter to the editor, please forward it to letters@globeandmail.com. Readers can also interact with The Globe on Facebook and Twitter .

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff. Non-subscribers can read and sort comments but will not be able to engage with them in any way. Click here to subscribe.

If you would like to write a letter to the editor, please forward it to letters@globeandmail.com. Readers can also interact with The Globe on Facebook and Twitter .

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff.

We aim to create a safe and valuable space for discussion and debate. That means:

  • Treat others as you wish to be treated
  • Criticize ideas, not people
  • Stay on topic
  • Avoid the use of toxic and offensive language
  • Flag bad behaviour

If you do not see your comment posted immediately, it is being reviewed by the moderation team and may appear shortly, generally within an hour.

We aim to have all comments reviewed in a timely manner.

Comments that violate our community guidelines will not be posted.

Read our community guidelines here

Discussion loading ...

To view this site properly, enable cookies in your browser. Read our privacy policy to learn more.
How to enable cookies