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Let's look back on the performance of the 52 stocks submitted last year for the weekly column "What the Charts Say." As usual, this report will cover a 12-month period from the beginning of December, 2010, to the same point in 2011, to allow the most recent suggestions time to mature.
2011 was a volatile year for North American stock markets. The U.S. market, as measured by the S&P 500 index, rallied 12.9 per cent to late-April, declined 19.2 per cent to Oct. 4, and then rallied 13.4 per cent to Dec. 1, to close up 3.4 per cent for this period. At the same time, the Toronto market, as measured by the S&P/TSX composite index, rose 9.0 per cent, declined by 22.0 per cent and rallied by 9.2 per cent to close the period with a loss of 7.2 per cent.
Twenty-nine of the 48 "buy" recommendations were closed out during the period. Six of these appreciated for an average of 10.2 per cent, while the others were kept at a reasonably minimum loss (an average of -5.5 per cent) due to the proficient use of stop-loss measures. Our stop-loss system worked impeccably when the Sino-Forest position was stopped out at $25.31 (an almost 9-per-cent gain) before it collapsed and was delisted.
Among the remaining 19 positions, 15 are well ahead for an average gain of 6.9 per cent, and only four are currently at a loss (statistics do not include dividends).
Of the four "sell" recommendations (all U.S. stocks), three were closed out for a 9-per-cent average gain and the fourth lost 4 per cent.
Where will the ideas come from in 2012? Both markets had significant lows last October and have risen ever since. January was an especially strong month in New York; it could well be the harbinger for this year. The Dow Jones industrial average has already hit a 3½ year high and numerous stocks in the information technology (Intel, Microsoft, Dell ) and the health care sector (Bristol-Myers Squibb, Merck ) show improved activity.
At the same time, the Toronto market is still lagging, since neither the energy nor the financial sectors currently provide leadership – although this will probably change – as there are technical signs suggesting renewed strength in Cenovus Energy, Imperial Oil and Penn West Petroleum. Other candidates may come from utilities such as Emera, Enbridge and Fortis.
Happy investing for 2012!
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'Buy' Recommendations
Date | Company | Ticker | Price | Price 31/1/12 | Price when closed | Date closed | Gain/Loss |
2010-12-04 | Corus Ent. | CJR.B-T | 21.76 | 20.83 | 22.35 | 2011-02-25 | 2.7% |
2010-12-11 | Bank of Nova Scotia | BNS-T | 56.00 | 51.53 | 58.95 | 2011-05-20 | 5.3% |
2010-12-18 | Siemens | SI-N | 122.34 | 94.29 | 127.57 | 2011-06-10 | 4.3% |
2010-12-24 | Aurizon Mines | ARZ-T | 7.22 | 5.58 | 6.97 | 2011-01-07 | -3.5% |
2012-01-01 | Bristol-Myers Squibb | BMY-N | 26.48 | 32.24 | 21.8% | ||
2011-01-08 | AT&T | T-N | 28.85 | 29.41 | 1.9% | ||
2011-01-15 | American Tower | AMT-N | 49.85 | 62.04 | 24.5% | ||
2011-01-22 | National Bank | NA-T | 69.68 | 72.76 | 75.74 | 2011-07-29 | 8.7% |
2011-01-29 | Bemis | BMS-N | 32.37 | 31.28 | 30.89 | 2011-08-03 | -4.6% |
2011-02-05 | Suncor | SU-T | 40.61 | 34.54 | 39.39 | 2011-05-13 | -3.0% |
2011-02-12 | CCL Industries | CCL.B-T | 33.80 | 31.73 | 31.24 | 2011-08-02 | -7.6% |
2011-02-19 | Cdn. Natural Res. | CNQ-T | 47.25 | 39.72 | 45.44 | 2011-04-13 | -3.8% |
2011-02-26 | Valspar | VAL-N | 38.20 | 43.24 | 36.82 | 2011-06-06 | -3.6% |
2011-03-05 | Westjet Airlines | WJA-T | 15.48 | 12.50 | 14.25 | 2011-06-10 | -7.9% |
2011-03-12 | Brinker Int'l | EAT-N | 24.79 | 25.85 | 23.31 | 2011-08-03 | -6.0% |
2011-03-19 | Sino-Forest | TRE-T | 23.28 | 0.00 | 25.31 | 2011-05-13 | 8.7% |
2011-03-26 | Foot Locker | FL-N | 19.86 | 26.24 | 32.1% | ||
2011-04-02 | Toll Brothers | TOL-N | 19.76 | 21.81 | 19.20 | 2011-08-03 | -2.8% |
2011-04-09 | JC Penney | JCP-N | 37.20 | 41.55 | 35.04 | 2011-06-01 | -5.8% |
2011-04-16 | Wolverine World Wide | WWW-N | 38.22 | 39.09 | 37.12 | 2011-08-03 | -2.9% |
2011-04-23 | Stantec | STN-T | 29.78 | 27.90 | 27.90 | 2011-08-02 | -6.3% |
2011-04-30 | IGM Financial | IGM-T | 48.67 | 44.80 | 46.06 | 2011-08-05 | -5.4% |
2011-05-07 | Centerra Gold | CG-T | 18.60 | 19.85 | 18.50 | 2011-12-15 | -0.5% |
2011-05-14 | Progress Energy | PRQ-T | 13.01 | 10.62 | 12.72 | 2011-08-09 | -2.2% |
2011-05-21 | Amcol Int`l | ACO-N | 35.27 | 28.56 | 32.05 | 2011-07-22 | -9.1% |
2011-05-28 | AT&T | T-N | 31.29 | 29.41 | -6.5% | ||
2011-06-04 | Canadian Tire | CTC.A-T | 61.36 | 64.26 | 59.80 | 2011-07-26 | -2.5% |
2011-06-11 | Royal Dutch Shell | RDS.A-N | 68.80 | 71.36 | 64.58 | 2011-08-04 | -6.1% |
2011-06-18 | Kimberly-Clark | KMB-N | 66.22 | 71.56 | 8.1% | ||
2011-06-25 | Minefinders | MFL-T | 11.91 | 14.19 | 15.65 | 2011-09-23 | 31.4% |
2011-07-02 | General Mills | GIS-N | 37.35 | 39.83 | 6.6% | ||
2011-07-09 | Mastec | MTZ-N | 21.15 | 16.29 | 18.01 | 2011-08-04 | -14.8% |
2011-07-16 | Jean Coutu Group | PJC.A-T | 11.88 | 13.38 | 12.6% | ||
2011-07-23 | ABB Ltd. | ABB-N | 24.57 | 20.83 | 21.95 | 2011-08-04 | -10.7% |
2011-07-30 | Valero Energy | VLO-N | 25.12 | 23.99 | 23.26 | 2011-08-03 | -7.4% |
2011-08-06 | McGraw-Hill | MHP-N | 41.72 | 46.00 | 10.3% | ||
2011-09-03 | Centerra Gold | CG-T | 20.98 | 19.85 | 20.07 | 2011-12-14 | -4.3% |
2011-09-10 | Unilever | UN-N | 31.37 | 33.35 | 6.3% | ||
2011-09-17 | Rogers Communication | RCI.B-T | 37.22 | 38.55 | 3.6% | ||
2011-09-24 | TransAlta | TA-T | 21.81 | 20.36 | -6.6% | ||
2011-10-08 | Vista Gold | VGZ-T | 3.53 | 3.79 | 7.4% | ||
2011-10-15 | Alimentation Couche-Tard | ATD.B-T | 30.35 | 30.45 | 0.3% | ||
2011-10-22 | Aurico Gold | AUQ-T | 9.18 | 9.49 | 8.92 | 2011-11-16 | -2.8% |
2011-10-29 | Yamana Gold | YRI-T | 15.40 | 17.35 | 12.7% | ||
2011-11-05 | Tesoro | TSO-N | 28.80 | 25.03 | -13.1% | ||
2011-11-12 | eBay | EBAY-Q | 31.76 | 31.60 | -0.5% | ||
2011-11-19 | American Electric Power | AEP-N | 38.56 | 39.56 | 2.6% | ||
2011-11-26 | McDonalds | MCD-N | 92.10 | 99.05 | 7.5% |
'Sell' recommendations
Date | Company | Ticker | Price | Price 31/1/12 | Price when closed | Date closed | Gain/Loss |
2011-08-13 | Canadian Pacific | CP-T | 59.1 | 71.84 | 52.27 | 2011-10-07 | 11.6% |
2011-08-20 | Citigroup | C-N | 26.77 | 31.97 | 27.84 | 2011-10-11 | -4.0% |
2011-08-27 | Bonterra Oil & Gas | BNE-T | 48.99 | 54.50 | 44.09 | 2011-10-04 | 10.0% |
2011-10-01 | National Bank | NA-T | 69.89 | 76.35 | 66.50 | 2011-12-01 | 4.9% |
Source: Phases & Cycles Inc.
Monica Rizk is the senior technical analyst for Phases & Cycles Inc. ( www.phases-cycles.com). Ron Meisels is a contributor to the www.NA-marketletter.com website. They may hold shares in companies profiled. Please see the site for a glossary.
Ron Meisels
Monica Rizk