What are we looking for?
Stocks that might rebound the most from the lows of a bear market.
More about today's screen
We'll look for members of S&P/TSX composite with market caps greater than $1-billion and sort them by greatest return since Feb. 27, 2009 – the closest month-end to the last bear market bottom of early March, 2009. Of course, it's not likely that these stocks will lead the rebound again, but you can see here that commodity stocks led the way. Morningstar CPMS, an equity research shop, helped us with this screen today and included annual profits since the last bear market. Many of these stocks went from losses to very strong profits.
More about Morningstar CPMS
CPMS is an equity research and portfolio analysis firm owned by Morningstar Canada. It maintains a database of about 680 of the largest and more liquid Canadian stocks, plus more than 2,200 U.S. stocks, and spends a lot of time adjusting for unusual accounting items in each company's quarterly results to make sure screens can perform correctly.
What did we find out?
Teck Resources Ltd. nearly went bankrupt during the last bear market, but rewarded brave investors with outsized returns since then. We haven't seen any big names go through that kind of stress yet in this bear market.
Many of these stocks are also forecast to still see rising profits by analysts through 2012, so more research should be done on these names to see whether analysts are just slow to account for falling commodity prices and a possible global recession.
Notes to accompanying table
* EPS 2011 and EPS 2012 are based on consensus estimates if the company has not yet reported financials for the fiscal year.