Bill Carrigan is a technical analyst at Getting Technical Info Services.
A leading gold miner, a safe yield play and a dominant theme – an aging population.
Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM.TO)
Agnico Eagle is one of the strongest gold miners relative to its peer group, with a recent higher low and about to break above a late August peak of $36.50.
Rogers Communications (RCIb.TO)
Rogers is a yield play with some growth; a strong performer relative to its peer group and the broader S&P/TSX composite.
Chartwell Retirement Residences (CSH_u.TO)
Chartwell is a growing component of a dominant theme play – an aging population. A strong performer relative to its peer group.
Past Picks: August 6, 2015
iShares S&P/TSX Capped Materials Index ETF (XMA.TO)
New comments: A basket of gold and base metal miners, potash producers, forestry companies and chemical companies. Technically oversold, it just hit the 2009 lows – needs to break above overhead resistance at the $9.75 level.
Then: $9.96 Now: $9.64 -3.21% Total return: -2.79%
BMO S&P/TSX Equal Weight Oil & Gas Index ETF (ZEO.TO)
New comments: A basket oil & gas producers, integrated giants and oilfield service companies. Technically an August 24 low (below the 2009 low) with a higher low on Sept. 30. It needs to break above overhead (pivot) at the $10.40 level.
Then: $10.89 Now: $10.86 -0.28% Total return: +0.64%
iShares Global Agriculture Index ETF (COW.TO)
New comments: A long term dominant theme: food. A basket of equity-related securities involved in the agricultural sector.
Then: $33.15 Now: $30.25 -8.75% Total return: -8.75%
Total Return Average: -3.63%
On August 6, 2015, I said:
An unstable ship: As investors chase fewer and fewer stocks ever higher, the technical analyst can see the advance/decline line and the new cumulative new 52-week high/low line failing, or not confirming the advance of the broad stock indexes.
They don't usually ring a warning bell: Recent investors in the crowded spaces of the health care and consumer sectors tend to be weak holders and can stampede out of a sector when alarmed by any injury to one of the sector leaders. The current and alarming drop of Apple Inc. below its 200-day moving average has the financial media buzzing and for good reason. Apple is basically a consumer-related company and has only violated the 200-day only three times since mid-2003.
Many market bellwethers have since broken down below long-term moving averages. The term bellwether was derived from the Middle English and refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram (a wether) in order that this animal might lead its flock of sheep.
Some broken market bellwethers are Goldman Sachs (financial), Disney & AutoNation (consumer), Gilead (health care), FedEx (transports), Boeing & Caterpillar (industrial) and Apple (technology).
The Q4 Outlook:
Likely a flat rotational period in the broader stock indexes though Q4 as investors move away from the financial and consumer sectors and toward the materials and energy sectors. Let us also see investors moving away from the U.S financial space and toward the U.S. energy space.