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Note to readers: This newsletter will be taking a two-week break for the holidays, returning Jan. 6

A clear example of how the banks differ is their share price performance over the past five years. But the independent research firm IncomeResearch.ca reports that average annual dividend growth from 2016 through 2020 will be in a narrow band between 5.8 per cent and 7 per cent. Growth for 2020 is based on estimates.

Toronto-Dominion Bank is projected to have an average five-year dividend growth rate of 7 per cent, while Royal Bank of Canada is pegged at 6.2 per cent, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce at 6.1 per cent, National Bank of Canada at 6 per cent and both Bank of Nova Scotia and Bank of Montreal at 5.8 per cent.

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There’s a lesson in these numbers for investors who put a priority on dividend income from their dividend stocks. Choosing the right bank makes a significant difference for stock performance, but not as much for dividend growth. According to GlobeInvestor.com, National Bank’s shares were up 50.3 per cent in total over the five years to mid-December, TD rose 35.7 per cent, RBC was up 31 per cent, BMO 25.5 per cent, Scotiabank 14.7 per cent and CIBC 10.5 per cent.

If you’re tracking big bank dividend growth year by year, you’ll very likely get the sense that the banks are increasing dividends at different rates. IncomeResearch.ca reports that fiscal 2019 dividend growth ranged from 10.7 per cent at TD to 5.3 per cent at CIBC. But growth rates even out if you look back a few years. Back in 2016, CIBC boosted its dividend by 10.5 per cent, while TD was around 2 per cent.

IncomeResearch.ca forecasts average dividend growth for the Big Six in 2020 of between 2.3 per cent and 3.2 per cent, a reflection of lower projected earnings growth. Noting it’s still early in the fiscal year, IncomeResearch said more dividend increases are still possible.

--Rob Carrick

This is the Globe Investor newsletter, published three times each week. If someone has forwarded this e-mail newsletter to you or you’re reading this on the web, you can sign up for the newsletter and others on our newsletter signup page.

The Rundown

Here’s why REIT and utility stocks have stumbled this month - and why there’s further weakness to come

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Canadian real estate investment trusts endured rapid declines averaging 5 per cent between Dec. 10 and Dec. 13 and utility stocks have also been weaker during the month. The obvious culprit behind the weakness in these popular income-generating sectors is rising government bond yields, which make equity-based income streams less attractive by comparison. The problem is that despite lower stock and unit prices, REITs and utility stocks remain well above where bond yields and their performance history suggest they should be, implying further weakness ahead. Scott Barlow explains

Q&A: What BMO Private Wealth’s Lesley Marks predicts for investors in 2020

Around this time last year, investors were commiserating about steep market losses and wondering whether a recession was around the corner. Lesley Marks wasn’t one of them. The chief investment strategist at BMO Private Wealth (Canada) was among the more optimistic bunch that believed better market conditions were ahead. As it turned out, major North American indexes hit record highs in 2019. The Globe and Mail recently spoke to Ms. Marks about her calls for 2019, both right and wrong, and predictions for 2020. Here’s a hint: Still no recession in sight.

Canada’s most famous economist thinks there’s an 80 per cent chance of recession next year - here’s how you should invest

David Rosenberg sees an 80-per-cent chance of the economy dropping into recession next year, owing in part to mammoth levels of household debt, which will continue to be a drag on consumer spending. “It’s rather incredible that in this era of uber-low interest rates, Canadian households are spending 15 cents out of every after-tax dollar on servicing the debt, including principal,” he says. The Globe and Mail spoke to Mr. Rosenberg about his outlook at his firm’s new office at Brookfield Place in Toronto.

Others (for subscribers)

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The week’s most oversold and overbought stocks on the TSX

Short sales on the TSX: What bearish investors are betting against

Contra Guys: Our lessons learned from a catastrophic stock purchase

Friday’s analyst upgrades and downgrades

Thursday’s analyst upgrades and downgrades

Friday’s Insider Report: CEO invests over $334,000 in this large-cap dividend stock

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Thursday’s Insider Report: Former Enbridge CEO invests nearly $1-million in Big 5 bank stock

History suggests rally may slow for U.S. stocks in 2020

Doctor Copper ends 2019 with a new-found spring in his step

Economically sensitive sectors top U.S. market strategists’ 2020 picks

Wall Street warns of a ‘more realistic’ future after a blockbuster 2019

How the high-net-worth are investing in today’s market

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Number Cruncher: Fifteen U.S. large-cap dividend stocks for those wary of a correction

Number Cruncher: Nine U.S. health-care stocks with fair valuations and a history of positive earnings growth

Analysts upbeat on SNC-Lavalin stock after plea deal settlement

Globe Advisor

Betting on Canadian blue-chip stocks

Are you a financial advisor? Register for Globe Advisor (www.globeadvisor.com) for free daily and weekly newsletters, in-depth industry coverage and analysis, and access to ProStation - a powerful tool to help you manage your clients’’ portfolios.

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Do you have a question for Globe Investor? Send it our way via this form. Questions and answers will be edited for length.

What’s up in the days ahead

This weekend, we’ll look back at the past decade in investing.

Click here to see the Globe Investor earnings and economic news calendar.

More Globe Investor coverage

For more Globe Investor stories, follow us on Twitter @globeinvestor

Click here share your view of our newsletter and give us your suggestions.

You may also be interested in our Market Update or Carrick on Money newsletters. Explore them on our newsletter signup page.

Compiled by Globe Investor Staff

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