The estimated decline in first-quarter S&P 500 earnings has improved over the last week and is now at just 0.7% year-over-year, Refinitiv data showed on Friday, thanks to another round of upbeat results from companies including Apple Inc..
The first-quarter reporting period is in the final stretch, with results now in from 419 of the S&P 500 companies. The latest forecast is based on actual results as of Friday and estimates for the remaining components.
About 77% of reports are beating analysts’ earnings expectations. Also, in aggregate, companies are reporting earnings 7.2% above expectations, the highest “surprise rate” since the third quarter of 2021, according to Refinitiv.
The 0.7% projected decline compares with an estimated fall for the first quarter of 1.9% a week ago and a drop of 5.1% at the start of April.
Despite the improved forecast, the first quarter still would mark a second straight quarterly fall for U.S. corporate earnings, or an “earnings recession,” which last occurred when COVID-19 hit corporate results in 2020.
S&P 500 earnings fell 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2022 from the year-ago period.
Upbeat results have helped the stock market in recent weeks as well, with Apple shares jumping 4.6% on Friday. Apple late Thursday reported stronger-than-expected results and iPhone sales.
Among companies still to report this earnings season are many top U.S. retailers including Walmart Inc..
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