U.S. equities, 10-year yields and the dollar-yen rate are expected to fall if the election result is delayed much longer than a couple of weeks beyond Nov. 3 or is contested in the Supreme Court, a fund manager and a strategist said on Wednesday.
U.S. equity markets could fall 5%-10%, “depending upon how bad the headlines get,” Binay Chandgothia, portfolio manager at Principal Global Investors, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum.
Stephen Innes, global chief markets strategist at AxiCorp in Bangkok, said he expected the S&P 500 to fall by about 10% “as the competing narrative between corporate tax hikes versus stimulus takes precedent.”
The S&P 500 has risen 8.7% this year, helped by trillions in fiscal and monetary policy, and is up 4% in October.
Chandgothia, whose firm manages around $490 billion in assets, said he expected the 10-year yield to slide 20-25 bps “if election uncertainty prolongs.”
The U.S. 10-year bond yield is at 0.7173%, versus a low of 0.5040% hit on August 6.
Chandgothia said he expected the U.S. dollar to appreciate against emerging market currencies, the euro and sterling , but weaken against the Japanese yen, without elaborating by how much.
Innes said he was “short USD/JPY” as a non-consensus trade, adding that he expected the yen to touch the 100-level against the U.S. dollar.
The dollar index has lost about 9% since its 2020 peak also seen in March.
Biden has an eight-point lead over Republican President Donald Trump in Michigan, Reuters/Ipsos polling of battleground states shows.
“The best hedges for a disappointment in results are long gold, long 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds and long U.S. dollar,” Chandgothia said.
“Of these, we are currently long U.S. dollar, and may add 30-year treasury bonds shortly.”
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