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Oilseeds – Global Weather Risk (WX) Report - Marcus Weather Inc.

Marcus Weather Inc. - Wed Dec 6, 2023

Oilseeds – Global Weather Risk (WX) Report - Marcus Weather Inc - This report examines WX for global rapeseed production.

Key Weather Risk Outlook Next 30 days – Too wet/saturated soils/freeze conditions in northern EU could lower yield for ‘24/25.

Precipitation patterns for EU major rapeseed growing areas have seen a shift over recent months. From early August, cumulative precipitation levels were in close proximity to the 10-year rolling average, from October 15th, rains have exceeded normal amounts by a sizable margin, with only one analog year a close(ish) comparison - 2019. In the graph below (cumulative total precipitation departure for EU rapeseed areas), we see close to +115mm of rain since October 15th, well above the normal moving into December, leading to above average soil moisture levels. Above average rains may have resulted in some areas of drown out and leaf yellowing due to nitrogen losses.

Until recently, temperatures have been above normal, with a positive departure since August, following a temperature pattern similar to 2022. Recent cold temperatures (late November), gave a slight decline in cumulative temperature departures. Looking forward, increased precipitation and milder than average temperatures are expected to return to the northwest EU growing areas, leading to soils that are too wet for up to 50% of the growing region. This could reduce crop vigor moving forward.
Marcus Weather Inc. estimates ‘23/24 production at near 97% of trend vs. 100% of trend for ‘24/25 production currently forecasted to be 22.0 mmt.

Cumulative Precipitation Departure from the 10 year rolling average for EU Rapeseed major areas. Source - Marcus Weather Inc./WeatherDelta

Drier conditions have prevailed for Australia rapeseed since the beginning of July (2023), with the occasional shower providing minor relief from dryness but not enough to stop yield declines compared to trend. The last 45-15 days have seen near continual dryness persistence for the majority of the growing area, but temperatures have remained near normal. Showers are expected next week for Victoria and southern New South Wales which could reduce harvest speed. Dry conditions in the Western Australia aids faster harvest progress and reduce field loses giving a small boost to yield potential. Marcus Weather Inc. estimates a 0.4 mmt deficit from the USDA estimate @ 5.1 mmt. 

Percentage normal precipitation for Australia last 30 day observations. Data - Marcus Weather global weather network. Platform - Marcus Weather Mapping

India rapeseed has seen below normal rainfall during August and September of this year, in the northwest states, which generally corresponds to a below average yield value in recent years. Cooler than average temperatures have been present since the beginning of October (2023). Light rains have been present recently (end of November), but a drier outlook is forecasted. Analog years for seasonal precipitation (2007 and 2015) resulted between 89% to 94% of trend, but both years included a drier than average February. Current Marcus Weather Inc. estimates India rapeseed @ 11.2 mmt (98% of trend yield) vs USDA at 11.7 mmt but precipitation amounts in February 2024 are key for final production levels.

Cumulative Precipitation for India Rapeseed areas. Source - Marcus Weather Inc./WeatherDelta

Black Sea and China
Black Sea - Drier than average conditions for the first half of October slowed autumn growth, but since mid-October, rains and milder than average temperatures have improved growth ahead of dormancy for the ‘24/25 crop. Marcus Weather Inc. estimate for Ukraine and Russia production remain unchanged vs USDA. China - Favorable conditions for on time planting, for China rapeseed. If area planted remains the same as indicated, production for ‘24/25 will be higher than ‘23/24 currently @ 15.4 mmt. 

Average Temperature Departure for China from the 30 year rolling forecast day 1 - 10. Data - Marcus Weather Hybrid Forecast. Platform - Marcus Weather Mapping

Marcus Weather Inc. is a data research company, providing global weather risk consultation services to hedge funds and food producers. We also offer low-cost access to weather risk applications, such as Marcus Weather Mapping (MWM), a weather and satellite imagery platform designed for the commodities industry and WEATHER ALARM, an interactive weather data application, allowing users to create and be alerted to predefined weather scenarios for user specified points or locations across the globe, for a designated time period.

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On the date of publication, Fergus Keatinge did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.