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No Bull | The Five Spot

NO BULL - Thu Apr 18, 6:57AM CDT

#5 | ¡Viva México! 

Mexico has a record 18.7mmt (735mbu) of US corn on the books this year - 38% higher than their commitments at this point one year ago.

Not only are their current commitments a record for this time of the year, but they have already surpassed the old full-year purchase record (2021/22) by a whopping 60 million bushels and that is with more than four months remaining in the marketing year.

#4 | Beans = No Bueno

Soybeans are another story though as cumulative new crop commitments for the 2024/25 marketing year sit at a dismal 17.3 million bushels on the books - less than one-third of this point last year and one-twentieth of commitments two years ago.

China is the driving factor here, without a single bushel purchased in their name yet - which hasn’t happened in YEARS.

Last year at this time, China had 29 million bushels of US new crop beans on the books and rewind two years - they had a staggering 217 million bushels already purchased.

#3 | <3 Weeks

We are barely halfway into April and the United States has seen a notable uptick in Avian Influenza outbreaks - particularly in laying hens with nearly 8.5 million birds impacted.

Laying hens (egg-laying chickens) are by far the most impacted by bird flu - 80% of the nearly 90 million US birds affected. Reason being, layers are often kept in massive million+ bird complexes (large commercial barns or a series of large barns located in close proximity to one another). 

Due to the nature of the virus and APHIS’ protocols for attempting to control the spread - ALL birds within the complex must be euthanized, which means 1-2 million birds can be depopulated at a time, leading to massive losses with each detection.

#2 | Two of a kind

Nothing to see here… just soybean oil trading like an energy as nearly half of all US soybean oil production now goes into biofuels.

#1 | Close ties

Related - no coincidence Bunge shares (BG) track close with crude oil, as Bunge is the largest oilseed processor in the world.

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Thanks!


On the date of publication, Susan Stroud did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

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