The Current El Nino is Failing to Deliver on Reaching a Super Status
El Nino is struggling to gain traction and has made no advancement since August of 2023 and has recently weakened with central sea surface temperatures of the Pacific ocean having cooled in recent weeks. What matters most is weather or not the atmosphere is acting and linking up with an El Nino condition in the central Pacific. The answer to that is a resounding no.
Current climate variables supporting this lack of atmospheric response are as follows:
- 1. A strongly negative Global Angular Momentum. In a healthy El Nino the Global Angular Momentum would be strongly positive. A negative reading is more of a La Nina response and highly unusual to see this happen with an apparent El Nino developing.
2. The multi variate Enso which measures several different atmospheric variables that constitute either an El Nino or La Nina response is currently at a +0.4. A minimum reading of +0.5 is required to indicate that the atmosphere is acting like an El Nino. So far that has not been reached.
3. The Southern Oscillation Index is currently at a -5 reading. A strong or strengthening El Nino would typically see negative readings in excess of -15 or even more negative to promote the strong westerly winds required to create downwelling of warm water to the surface. That is not happening suggesting October is not likely to see an improvement in El Nino strength.
4. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation remains at very negative readings typically associated with La Nina not El Nino. This is very unusual to see a strong -PDO with a developing El Nino.
All the above warns that this El Nino is not the main driver of climate right now hence why so many weather forecasters have been surprised by how weather has been playing out across the globe.
Our work strongly suggests that this El Nino will not make Super status and instead will morph into a strong El Nino Modoki by December where the sea surface temperatures of the central Pacific are between +.5 to +1.00 degrees C warmer that the eastern Pacific. That Modoki condition would set off a completely different set of climate weather patterns than would be expected from a normal conical El Nino.
The North American winter and the upcoming Brazilian growing season are two areas where an El Nino Modoki would cause significant divergences from normal El weather expectations not to mention the 2024 US growing season and a likely return of La Nina by summer of 2024. But that is for another time.
We specialize in using statistics, correlations and historical cycles with climate to project out likely risk points and outcomes and where Ag production and prices might be heading.
The chart below show the current state of the El Nino Modoki Index and how it has been surging as of late showing a strong trend towards developing an El Nino Modoki by December 2023
The Jamstec Japanese weather model forecast below for El Nino Modoki Index agrees with our work projecting a strong Modoki by December 2023 and lasting into the Spring of 2024.
If one wants more details can download a sample report using the link below:
With that registration we can also send you our global climate weather podcast we recorded over a month ago which discusses the above in much more detail.
You can also reach us by emailing at firstname.lastname@example.org. Anyone involved in the Ag space whether as a farmer, investor, Insurer, banker etc. needs to consider how to manage this upcoming climate risk to maintain business stability.
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