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Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow

BMO economist Robert Kavcic noted the beginning of the big test for Canadian real estate prices,

“Toronto benchmark home prices rose a record 35.9% y/y in February, following strong price gains reported already in other major cities such as Vancouver and Calgary. On an annualized basis, price growth is running at around a 50% rate more recently. Now the test begins. This is a market that has run ahead of itself because of too-loose policy and buyer psychology. Fundamentally, we probably need at least a few more 25-bp rate hikes to see the market slow meaningfully. But, as shown in 2017, psychology can change quickly the minute price expectations change (as investors pull back and listings no longer get held off the market). That said, this is still a market well-rooted in demographic and supply-side fundamentals. Canadians also have capacity to handle higher rates, and they’ve been stress-tested accordingly. But there’s little question that there is some froth to clean up…

BMO: “there’s little question that there is some froth to clean up” in Canadian real estate " – (research excerpt) Twitter


Citi strategist Chris Montagu identified Suncor Energy Corp. as climbing to the top decile of MSCI World Index attractiveness,

“The World Radar Screen is a quantitative application of behavioral finance which aims to generate alpha from Value and Momentum investing. Our model uses a globally consistent framework to measure relative Value and Momentum for a large number of stocks across global developed and emerging markets. Each month our model produces relative Value and Momentum rankings which are equally weighted to arrive at a global attractiveness score for each stock. Stock ranks can also then be aggregated to assess the relative merits of countries and sectors… tocks moving into the top decile of the MSCI World are Publicis Groupe, Mercedes-Benz Group, Tesco, Suncor Energy, Commerzbank, Sanofi, Nippon Yusen, Renesas Electronics, South32 and Origin Energy”


RBC analyst Bish Koziol made a huge number of changes to the company’s “QuaDS Score” model Top 40 portfolio of Canadian stocks, which is derived from value, growth, momentum and predictability screens.

TFI International Inc., Algonquin Power and Utilities, Ritchie Brothers Auctioneers Inc., Advantage Oil and Gas, Birchcliff Energy Ltd., Dollarama Inc. and Franco Nevada Corp were removed. Stantec Inc., IA Financial Corp. Inc., Cogeco Communications Inc., Canadian National Railway, Quebecor Inc., Sun Life Financial Inc. and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd were added.

Outside of the names listed above, the top 40 portfolio now includes, Pason Systems Inc., TC Energy Corp., CCL industries Inc., Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Corp., Stella-Jones Inc., WSP Global Inc., Toromont Industries Ltd., Waste Connections Inc., Richelieu Hardware Ltd., ATS Automation Tooling Systems, Metro Inc., Loblaw Companies Ltd., Empire Co. Ltd., National Bank, CI Financial, Great-West Lifeco Inc., Canadian Western bank, Equitable Group Inc., BMO, Bank of Nova Scotia, Poweer Corp. of Canada, TMX Group Ltd., CIBC, Open Text Corp., Enghouse Systems Ltd., CGI Inc., Celestica Inc., Descartes Systems Group Ltd., Rogers Communications Inc., Shaw Communications Inc., and Telus Corp.

" RBC’s ‘QuaDS Score - Canada Overall Top 40″ portfolio” – (table) Twitter


Diversion: “Stunning Roman mosaic is discovered in London, the largest in 50 YEARS” – Daily Mail U.K.

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