A roundup of what The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web
Citi global strategist Robert Buckland’s Thursday research report attempts to reassure nervous investors,
“Bull market: Old but not dead. Citi equity strategists expect a healthy 9% increase in the MSCI AC World benchmark by end-2020. We think it is too early to call the end of this 10 year global bull market, although the risks remain considerable. .. The analyst consensus expects 10% global EPS growth in 2020. Top-down, we expect 4%, suggesting more downgrades to come… Our global Bear Market Checklist (BMC) is still telling us to buy the dips, showing only 4/18 red flags”
“@SBarlow_ROB C: Bull market old, but not dead” – (research excerpt) Twitter
“@SBarlow_ROB C: bear market checklist implies no immediate market danger” – (table) Twitter
“The bull run in stocks that began a decade ago isn’t over, Citigroup says” – Bloomberg
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Merrill Lynch quantitative strategist Savita Subramanian has a blunt warning for investors,
“Re-think liquidity risk. Right now … liquidity rarely matters, but when it does, it's all that matters. Over the past year we have seen liquidity risks bubbling up … we worry about an unlikely area of liquidity risk: the S&P 500, the equity benchmarks perceived to be more liquid than most. Trading dynamics have changed, and it is well documented that trading volume of large cap US stocks has been increasingly shifting to non-fundamental investors ("quants", passive, high frequency, etc.). … The result is a bid-ask spread for the average S&P 500 stock that is close to a multi-year high.”
“@SBarlow_ROB Subramanian (ML) : "“Re-think liquidity risk. Right now” – (research excerpt) Twitter
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BMO economists noted a stabilization in Vancouver home prices,
“Vancouver home sales were up a massive 46.3% y/y in September, keeping in mind that year-ago levels were in the dumps… The real picture is that the level of sales activity is now effectively back to normal (i.e., very close to the 10-year average on a seasonally-adjusted basis). And, that is good news for that market.’
“@SBarlow_ROB BMO: Vancouver housing market finally stabilizing” – (research excerpt) Twitter
See also: “ Toronto, Vancouver home sales surge as Canada’s most expensive cities move into recovery mode” – Report on Business
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Tweet of the Day:
The reason why ISM was so important, amongst other indicators showing the same trend....It leads by 2 months!! #ouch $spy pic.twitter.com/lBocSJwiiC
— Maleeha Bengali (@MaleehaMBCC) October 3, 2019
Diversion: “Would Finding Life on Mars Really Change Anything?” – Gizmodo
Newsletter: “The growth underpinning profits is fading fast” – Globe Investor