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A roundup of what The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web

Citi global strategist Jeremy Hale is very bullish in the loonie, with a compelling fundamental argument,

“Negative US growth convergence with the [rest of world] is now cemented in 2019 we think and we elect to short USDs here vs. CAD … Technically, USD/CAD has recently broken out of its uptrend … the Canadian jobs report last Friday was excellent … with the unemployment rate falling to a 43-year low … Canadian [economic surprise index is] the highest in G10 ... As the BoC remains data dependent this makes it more likely that the BoC doesn’t follow the Fed [with rate cuts].”

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“@SBarlow_ROB C recommends short USDCAD’ – (research excerpt, four charts) Twitter

“@SBarlow_ROB Canadian and U.S. economic surprise indexes moving in opposite directions” – (chart) Twitter

“The Northern Frontier: What Prime-Age Employment In The US & Canada Reveal” - Skanda Amarnath, Medium

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The International Energy Agency released a report Friday predicting a sharp decline in crude demand in the months ahead,

“The Paris-based IEA, which coordinates the energy policies of industrial nations, revised down its 2019 demand growth estimate by 100,000 barrels to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), but said it would climb to 1.4 million bpd for 2020… Surging U.S. supply as well as gains from Brazil, Canada and Norway would contribute to an increase in non-OPEC supply of 1.9 million bpd this year and 2.3 million bpd in 2020. “

Crude prices are flat at time of writing, supported by Middle East tensions.

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“IEA cuts 2019 estimate for oil demand growth on global trade worries” – Report on Business

“IEA: Oil supply to swamp demand” – Bloomberg

“China says nobody wants war after tanker attacks in Gulf of Oman” – Reuters

“@MaleehaMBCC This is the problem in #oil, there is just TOO MUCH of it around.” – (chart on U.S. crude inventories) Twitter

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BMO economic analyst Priscilla Thiagamoorthy reports that domestic household debt levels are still economically problematic,

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“Canadian household debt ratios edged lower in the first quarter of this year. Notably, debt-to-disposable income fell to 173.0% in Q1, down 0.7 ppts from the prior quarter. .. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the ratio held steady at 177.6%. But, that’s still under the record high of 178.3%, suggesting we may finally be at a turning point as the decades-long borrowing binge continues to cool.

"Perhaps even more interesting is the household debt service ratio (interest and principal as a share of disposable income), which matched a record high hit in 2007Q4. On average, Canadian households are now using 14.9% of disposable income to meet debt obligations, with a larger portion heading towards interest payments.”

“@SBarlow_ROB BMO: "Household debt service ratio (interest and principal as a share of disposable income) ... which matched a record high hit in 2007Q4"” – (research excerpt) Twitter

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Tweet of the Day:

Diversion: “‘Recycling Is Like a Band-Aid on Gangrene’” – The Atlantic

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If you would like to write a letter to the editor, please forward it to letters@globeandmail.com. Readers can also interact with The Globe on Facebook and Twitter .

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