Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
Like Scotiabank Monday, Credit Suisse analyst Manav Gupta thinks now is the time to add energy stocks.
Mr. Gupta also provided a list of top picks which includes two Canadian stocks,
“We continue to believe that in a post Russia-Ukraine conflict world, we are short of crude oil, refined products and natural gas. We estimate global oil market was undersupplied by ~1.5MMb/d in 2Q 22 and will remain undersupplied by ~0.8MMb/d in 2H 22 and this will continue to support higher prices in the near-term. While IEA still believes markets will be somewhat balanced in 2022/2023, in our opinion, IEA is overestimating supply growth from certain regions (including OPEC) and still underestimating total global demand… World is short of refining capacity and we expect US refiners will likely be one of the biggest beneficiaries of that as European peers struggle to source replacement of Russian barrels … Our favorite names… also highlight investment cases for our favorite names. Integrated oil – XOM, CVX, SU [Suncor Energy Inc.] and CVE [Cenovus Energy Inc.]. Upstream – COP, OVV and CHK. Midstream – LNG, PAA and TRGP. Refiners – VLO, MPC, DINO, PSX and VTNR.”
Wells Fargo strategist Chris Haverland details what I think is the biggest short term equity market risk – earnings downgrades,
“After growing by 9% in the first quarter of 2022, S&P 500 Index earnings are expected to have grown by 5.7% in the second quarter of 2022 … It would be the slowest quarter for growth since the fourth quarter of 2020... The energy, industrials, and materials sectors should lead the way with energy earnings expected to growth by a remarkable 205%. Excluding the energy sector, overall S&P 500 Index earnings are expected to contract by 2%... Forward guidance will be key as many companies continue to deal with rising input prices, a tight labour market and continued global supply chain constraints.”
“WF on Q2 earnings” – (research excerpt) Twitter
The longer-term outlook for copper stocks is bright because of electrification, but it would be hard to tell that as miners and the commodity price continue to fall. The RBC research team discussed the trend,
“The North American Base Metals have almost fully caught up to the copper price and are now down 6% year-to-date (copper -11.7% ytd) but are still outperforming the broader market (S&P 500 -18.7% ytd, TSX -9.4% ytd). The North American Base Metals stocks are trading at an 18% discount to NAV, above trough levels around a 40% discount but near the historical avg. discount of 22% (see page 6). While the volatility could continue, we believe this pull back creates an opportunity to add high quality names which stand to benefit from the positive copper fundamentals in the coming years.
Diversion: “9 Invasive Plants You Should Rip to Shreds” – Gizmodo
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