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Inside the Market ‘Everything is getting worse’ for Canada’s energy sector as foreign investors flee

A roundup of what The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web

The lack of pipelines is among the many issues squeezing the domestic energy industry as global companies divest their Canadian assets and leave for greener pastures,

“The energy sector -- centered around Alberta’s oil sands -- has struggled to rebound since the 2014 crash in global oil prices, with capital spending declining for five straight years and job cuts pushing the province’s unemployment rate above 6%. Alberta is forecast to post the slowest growth of any region in Canada this year. ..

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“'If they thought things were getting better in Canada, they might hold on, but they don’t see things getting better,' Laura Lau, who helps manage more than $2 billion (US$1.5 billion) at Brompton Corp. in Toronto, said in an interview. ‘The pipeline situation is getting worse; everything is getting worse.’”

“The US$30 billion exodus: Foreign oil firms are bailing on Canada” – BNN Bloomberg

See also: “OPEC's market share sinks - and no sign of wavering on supply cuts” – Reuters

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The global economy is still struggling, but there are signs of at least stabilization in data released overnight,

“ @C_Barraud 🇪🇺 #EUROZONE AUG PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 47.0 V 46.2E (7th straight contraction) *PMI Services: 53.4 v 53.0e (2-month high)” – (chart) Twitter

“ @chigrl Preliminary PMI data from Japan does not look too bad” – (report summary) Twitter

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“ @C_Barraud SouthKorea Aug 1-20 Exports Y/Y (same number of business days): -13.3% v -13.6% in July 1-20 - Exports to #China Y/Y: -20.0% v -19.3% in July 1-20” – (chart) Twitter

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Nomura strategist Masanari Takada provided an update on asset flows for aggressive, speculative global funds,

“Although the likely magnitude of any second bottoming looks to have declined, the risk of a vol-up scenario playing out at the end of August or early September has not been completely eliminated … the current equity rally seems largely driven by wishful thinking, and … investors should be on their guard until it becomes clear just how dovish Fed Chair Jerome Powell will lean in his comments at Jackson Hole.”

“@SBarlow_ROB Nomura's Takada, "the current equity rally seems largely driven by wishful thinking" – (research excerpt) Twitter

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Wednesday’s domestic inflation data was stronger than expected, but CIBC believes it won’t change the Bank of Canada’s thinking on policy rates,

“Canadian inflation flew past expectations on the back of a spike in airline fares. But that was the result of a methodological change at Statistics Canada and should reverse in the months to come. Price increases in other categories such as gasoline also appear to be simply flashes in the pan, with fuel costs dropping in recent weeks. As a result, the hotter-than-expected reading won’t do much to alter thinking at the Bank of Canada, given that much of the upside surprise is likely to reverse.”

“ @SBarlow_ROB CM on Canadian inflation” – (research excerpt) Twitter

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Tweet of the Day:

Diversion: “‘Cold Case Hammarskjöld’ and ‘What You Gonna Do When the World’s on Fire?’ Are Two of the Year’s Best Documentaries” – The Ringer

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Newsletter: “Why you shouldn’t ignore the inverted yield curve, a ‘frugal dividend portfolio’ for small caps, and a Canadian tech stock with stunning returns” – Globe Investor

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