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A roundup of what The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web

North American equity futures have been volatile overnight on political news but I’m not yet convinced that politics will have a lasting effect on markets. The president has been an odd kind of bulletproof where once a critical column has been written, he’s already said or done a few more bizarre things. It’s like he’s outrunning criticism.

“All Eyes on the Presidency” – The Atlantic


Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh called the Canadian dollar a “moose on the loose” in a just-released research report and I found this entertaining in the early hours of Wednesday morning,

“The Canadian dollar has been the strongest-performing G10 currency since June 22 when data surprises bottomed, and the second strongest G10 currency in the last month after JPY. And for good reason - along with the Fed, the BOC is one of only two major central banks on a sustained tightening path, headline all-items inflation has been above the 2.0% midpoint of the control range since February, wage growth is above the 3.0% pace which the Bank sees as consistent with a labour market with no slack, GDP growth is projected to run 20-30 bps above potential in 2018 and 2019, and the overnight lending rate of 1.5% is well below the neutral nominal policy rate range of 2.5-3.5%...”

Mr. Hsueh, however, thinks the loonie will weaken from here,

“the Canadian data surprise index is approaching previous peak levels, while key lingering fundamental concerns around the health of the housing market and a high consumer debt burden are likely to persist for some time.”

“@SBarlow_ROB The loonie, ‘moose on the loose’” – (research excerpt) Twitter


Domestic banks continue to defy the skeptics and U.S. hedge fund short positions,

“RBC boosts dividend” – Babad, Report on Business


Goldman Sachs published a list of the most popular, FAANG-heavy hedge fund stock positions, which have been holding back their returns,

“Nearly 100 hedge funds owned Facebook as a top 10 portfolio position at the start of 3Q, keeping it atop our Hedge Fund VIP list and weighing on fund returns as the stock tumbled in July. Our VIP list of the most popular long positions has suffered large performance swings this year, lagging the S&P 500 by 500 bp since June.”

“@SBarlow_ROB Longer table of GS "Hedge Fund VIP stocks"” – Twitter (table)


Tweet of the Day: “@TheStalwart In case you want to know where the mania in the market is right now, the marijuana stocks message board on Reddit (r/weedstocks) has gone wild. 2700 comments on [Monday’s] daily open thread.… “ - Twitter

Diversion: “Sewage Study Finds American Drug Use May Be Worse Than We Thought” – Gizmodo

Tuesday newsletter: I wrote about the second derivative of profit growth or ‘direction of travel’ as a vital component of market performance,

" Why ‘direction of travel’ means everything for stock prices, a trio of bank stocks are set to boost their dividends and why nothing is going right for gold - A roundup of investment ideas for active investors " - Globe Investor