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For the most part, 2018 was a rough year for the Canadian dollar.

The loonie dropped 7.8 per cent against the U.S. dollar, finishing the year just above 73 cents U.S. It wasn’t just the greenback, either: Nearly 80 per cent of global currencies, or 112 of 142 currencies tracked by Bloomberg, strengthened against the Canadian dollar.

If there was a silver lining, several major currencies fell against the loonie, including those of such countries as Australia, Brazil, India and Russia.

What does 2019 have in store? Some relief may be on the way. The U.S. dollar is expected to hit $1.28 Canadian in the fourth quarter, according the consensus estimate of forecasts compiled by Bloomberg. That implies a 5-per-cent fall for the greenback versus the loonie, based on midday Thursday exchange rates. Or put another way, the consensus estimate is for the loonie to reach 78.12 cents (U.S.) in the final quarter of this year.

CIBC Capital Markets has a less bullish outlook. In a forecast released on Wednesday, the group said the loonie “should recover some lost ground” over the next month or two – but that’s contingent on oil prices stabilizing. The longer term outlook is gloomier, with CIBC noting the Canadian dollar “needs to weaken further," and the group forecasts the U.S. dollar at $1.34 Canadian at year’s end.

“This is the result of the need for a more competitive non-energy export sector as well as running a current account deficit that is largely funded by foreign portfolio inflows,” CIBC’s Bipain Rai and Sarah Ying wrote in their note to clients.

(We’ve highlighted some major currencies below for reference.)

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