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Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow

National Bank economists provided further details on the madness that is the current Canadian real estate market,

“Seasonally adjusted national home sales jumped 6.6 per cent from January to February and in the process registered a new record. Sales remained at a historically high level of over 55k units for a seventh month in a row… we do not rule out the possibility that the government will consider macro-prudential measures in the coming months to cool the market … The national resale market is quite tight due to Ontario, Quebec, Manitoba, B.C. and the Maritime provinces … Housing starts remained at a historically high level and 20 per cent above the 10-year average…”

The report noted that seven of the 11 markets in the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index rose in January. The biggest month over month gains were seen in Hamilton (2.0 per cent) Montreal (1.0 per cent), Victoria (0.6 per cent), Halifax (0.4 per cent) and Vancouver (0.4 per cent).

“@SBarlow_ROB NBF on Canadian housing market: “national home sales jumped 6.6 per cent from January to February and in the process registered a new record” - (research excerpt) Twitter


BMO economist Sal Guatieri also contributed to the housing market analysis Tuesday,

“There are few superlatives left to describe Canada’s housing boom. One thing is clear, sellers have never ridden higher in the driver’s seat. Compared with active and new listings, demand has never been stronger. In the first two months of the year, homes were selling almost as soon as they were put on the market, which is unparalleled. Until this dynamic changes, prices can only remain in full throttle”

“@SBarlow_ROB BMO on housing: “Tightest. Market. Ever.” – (chart, research excerpt) Twitter


Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin began his 110-page Anatomy of our US Portfolio Strategy Thematic and Sector Baskets by presenting his “dual beta” portfolio of stocks that benefit from both a recovering economy and also historically outperform a rising S&P 500. These stocks are likely to be volatile, one direction nor another.

There are 50 stocks in the sector neutral basket, too many to list here. Notable names that confirm most to the criteria include Dish Network Corp., Norwegian Cruise Lines Holdings Ltd., Molson Coors Beverage Co., Occidental Petroleum Corp., Wells Fargo & Co., Viatris Inc., American Airlines Group Inc., Enphase Energy Inc., Teradyne Inc., Albermarle Inc. and Simon Property Group Inc.

“@SBarlow_ROB GS: “Our Dual Beta basket is a sector-neutral basket containing 50 stocks with the highest combined beta to both the US economy and the US stock market” – (full table) Twitter


Diversion: “Don’t worry, the earth is doomed: A brief list of the existential and catastrophic risks facing the human species” – M.I.T. Technology Review (originally published October, 2020)

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