Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
In response to the recent share price appreciation in the technology sector, National Bank Financial analysts John Shao and Richard Tse thinks “it’s reasonable to take some money off the table” heading into quarterly earnings season given the “lofty” expectations from the Street.
“As you know, year-to-date returns across major North American Tech indices have been robust – the S&P Info Tech, NASDAQ 100 and S&P/TSX Info Tech indices are up 44 per cent, 41 per cent and 48 per cent, respectively,” they said in a research report released Monday. “If you’ve been following our research, you may recall that it was only around a month ago when we pointed to a potential “catch up trade” for small and mid-cap (SMID) tech names. To our surprise, many names in that group have moved quickly – much like the prodigious gains across mega cap Tech this year. And while we believe the early leadership in those mega cap names came via their relative growth potential combined with defensive attributes as interest shifted away from ‘growth at all cost’ – the sizeable moves across the sector have valuations back to their 10-year average, which has made it a challenging call based on the data.”
The analysts do see the potential for further upside, noting valuations have recovered from 2022 lows with the group having yet to exceed its 10-year average.
“We show on a relative basis, the relative performance of small-cap to large-cap Tech is still well below where it’s historically been,” he said. “That divergence has likely caught the interest of investors too. Since the end of April, small-cap Tech has outperformed large cap Tech by approximately 9 per cent.
“Interestingly, when it comes to Canada, while most names would likely qualify as small/mid-cap on a global basis, there’s been a similar local divergence as investors have also begun looking for the next tier of names following solid year-to-date returns in large names like Shopify (YTD up 89 per cent), OpenText (up 42 per cent), Constellation Software (up 33 per cent) and CGI (up 19 per cent), with interest already cascading in some smaller names with big moves in names like Blackline Safety (up 98 per cent YTD), Kinaxis (up 23 per cent) and Real Matters (up 62 per cent), all of which are executing within their business plans, despite a tough macro.”
For earnings season, the analysts had a cautious message for investors, declaring: “Valuations are not convincing enough to support a strong view either way for the sector.”
“Looking ahead, we see Coveo and Docebo as names that continue to execute on their business plans that have yet to mount notable moves. That said, given the macro backdrop, we’d still lean towards names with strong defensive attributes for tech exposure (e.g., recurring revenue, strong FCF generation) such as CGI, Constellation Software and OpenText,” they added.
They made a series of target price adjustments for stocks in their coverage universe:
* CGI Inc. (GIB.A-T, “outperform”) to $175 from $160. The average on the Street is $150.85.
Mr. Tse: “We believe CGI is moving back to its previous growth trajectory (both organic and inorganic) pre-COVID. Bottom line, we continue to believe CGI has more potential for outperformance given its combination of growth and defensive attributes (e.g., recurring revenue and cash flow, long-term contracts).”
* Constellation Software Inc. (CSU-T, “outperform”) to $3,250 from $3,000. Average: $3,086.39.
Mr. Tse: “All in, we continue to like CSU for its defensive attributes (recurring revenue and cash flow) and heightened growth profile given the accelerated pace of capital deployment.”
* D2L Inc. (DTOL-T, “outperform”) to $11 from $10. Average: $10.79.
Mr. Shao: “D2L has a July quarter-end and reported its FQ1 results in June. While it’s almost two months away from another earnings release, the high revenue visibility and a straightforward operating model have us believe the Company is well-positioned to report better-than-expected results care of strong sales activity in the summer months.”
* Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (LSPD-N/LSPD-T, “outperform”) to US$23 from US$20. Average: US$19.50.
Mr. Tse: “We’re expecting soft FQ1 (CQ2) results from Lightspeed. While we like the Payments strategy, the staged rollout won’t be at scale until H2 which leads to some potential volatility early in the rollout.”
* Nuvei Corp. (NVEI-Q/NVEI-T, “outperform”) to US$50 from US$75. Average: US$56.67.
Mr. Tse: " We continue to believe Nuvei is uniquely positioned for growth in a market that’s undergoing a meaningful transformation care of the rise in digital services. Within that market, Nuvei remains a disruptive player with outsized growth relative to the sector.”
* Real Matters Inc. (REAL-T, “sector perform”) to $8.50 from $6.50. Average: $6.14.
Mr. Tse: “Bottom line, with market originations appearing to be near bottom based on market data and Real Matters using the lull to advance its platform and operations (building operating leverage), we rate REAL Outperform with a revised target price.”
* Thinkific Labs Inc. (THNC-T, “outperform”) to $3 from $4. Average: $4.09.
Mr. Tse: “We continue to see Thinkific as a leader in the online learning market with a competitive platform for content creators. And while the challenging macro has the potential to weigh on new paid customer growth in the short term, at 0.4 times EV/S (F23E), we think the risk-to-reward profile is favourable, particularly for a Company that’s expected to exit this fiscal year with a positive Adj. EBITDA run rate.”
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Pointing to an “improved stock market and general macro environment,” Canaccord Genuity analyst Scott Chan hiked his targets for Canada’s Big 6 banks on Monday, seeing signs of optimism from the recently completed earnings season for the sector south of the border.
“The six US mega banks (BAC, C, GS, JPM, MS, WFC) reported their Q2/23 results,” he said. “With lower expectations heading into the quarter (from US regional banking crisis and nearterm recessionary fears), we view overall results as incrementally positive (TD stock benefitted most with highest U.S. exposure). In Q2/23, US core P&C trends were mixed (i.e., larger NIM benefitting from higher rates but loan growth slowing, credit continues to normalize) with revenue and expense outlooks remain largely unchanged. The futures market is now pricing in less than two more rate hikes (or less than 50 bps) for the U.S. with anticipated rate cuts starting in Dec/23). We note that U.S. mega banks (avg.) trade at a slight P/E (2024E) premium at 10.0 times vs. the Big-6 Cdn. banks at 9.6 times. We believe both Group’s trade below their historical averages primarily due to macro concerns and potential impact on total PCLs during this extended credit cycle.”
His changes are:
- Bank of Montreal (BMO-T, “buy”) to $130.50 from $121.50. The average on the Street is $131.41.
- Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T, “hold”) to $69.50 from $67. Average: $70.27.
- Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM-T, “buy”) to $64 from $62. Average: $63.49.
- National Bank of Canada (NA-T, “hold”) to $105 from $102. Average: $104.08.
- Royal Bank of Canada (RY-T, “hold”) to $135 from $128.50. Average: $135.11.
- Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD-T, “buy”) to $92.50 from $86. Average: $92.28.
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While he warns Canadian Property and Casualty (P&C) insurance companies continue to face risks across personal automobile lines, Scotia Capital analyst Phil Hardie believes “an inflection point is likely on the horizon.”
“Reduced claims inflation and the benefits of the recent premium rate increases working their way through earnings are expected to produce a growing tailwind for profitability improvements,” he said. “That said, auto theft-related claims are likely an area that will continue to see pressure. We expect Intact to reach its inflection point near the mid-point of 2023, while we expect Definity to take a few more quarters and see improvements starting in early 2024.
“We are likely in the later innings of the pricing cycle but expect the firm-to-hard markets to continue given that there are more tailwinds than headwinds. Factors putting upward pressure on pricing and likely to extend the cycle include (1) inflation, (2) severe weather, and (3) increased reinsurance costs. The emerging counter forecast involves (1) improved industry profitability, (2) new capital entering the market, and (3) the recent rise in interest rates.”
In a research report released Monday examining issues facing the sector over the next 12-18 months, Mr. Hardie emphasized the impact of ongoing M&A activity.
“Intact and Definity are likely well-capitalized and have a high degree of financial flexibility,” he said. “Given their strong appetite for M&A, we see deal activity as potential catalysts over the next 12 to 24 months. Trisura will also consider M&A to help accelerate its growth and recently noted that it is seeing more opportunities than in the past. Fairfax has recently bought and sold businesses and is likely to maintain a more “internal focus” in its M&A strategy. We believe that Fairfax will take a selective approach to M&A with an internal focus aimed at acquiring the remaining minority stakes of the businesses it already owns rather than seeking out transformative acquisitions.”
Mr. Hardie reaffirmed Fairfax Financial Holdings Inc. (FFH-T) as his “top pick” in the sector, seeing “solid upside” despite a strong start to the year.
“We view Fairfax as an attractive opportunity with the current valuation likely not reflecting the company’s earnings power,” he said. “We believe the stock should garner a sustainable re-rate on the back of the organic expansion in its insurance operations, which likely enhances the company’s ROE and the growth rate potential of its book value, and potentially adds greater consistency to both metrics. The company is likely well positioned for the current rate environment and has locked in a much higher run-rate of operating investment income as a result of the rise in bond yields and its short-duration portfolio. Further, given its value investing approach, we think it has the potential to continue to generate outsized investment returns – even against a backdrop of more modest equity market returns. The company has demonstrated resilience through the business cycle and turbulent financial markets, but we view it as a less-defensive play than more traditional publicly listed insurers. At this stage of the market cycle, this likely provides an attractive balance: downside protection thanks to the relative resilience of insurance operations through a potential recession, and upside potential when markets recover. The company is likely overlooked or unloved by investors, and continues to trade well below its intrinsic value. We are bullish on the name and believe FFH is well-positioned to successfully navigate the current environment and remains one of our top value ideas for 2023.”
To reflect an upward revision to his book value forecast, Mr. Hardie raised his target for Fairfax shares to $1,500 from $1,350 with a “sector outperform” recommendation. The average on the Street is $1,355.08.
Conversely, he lowered his targets for the other three stocks in the sector “due to lower target multiples, reflecting some compression.” They are:
* Intact Financial Corp. (IFC-T, “sector outperform”) to $210 from $225. The average is $218.60.
Mr. Hardie: “Intact remains our ‘Go-To’ defensive quality name that we believe is attractive for large-cap investors looking for a high-quality name to reduce portfolio beta and trades at a reasonable valuation. Intact is Canada’s largest P&C insurer, with a successful long-term track record of exceeding industry ROE by 500 basis points, that is also a resilient, defensive-oriented leading financial services company with a strong management team and mid- to long-term growth prospects. The pillars of its strategic road map for growth include expanding leadership in Canada, building a specialty solutions leader, and strengthening leading positions in the United Kingdom and Ireland. We view Intact as our ‘Go-To’ defensive quality name largely from its defensive characteristics, solid growth outlook, and sustainable mid-teen ROEs supported by a favourable pricing environment. M&A also likely provides an embedded catalyst. Given its current levels of excess capital and progress with the RSA integration, we believe deal activity is imminent over the next 12 to 24 months. We see several catalysts on the horizons that include (1) stronger-than-expected underwriting and operational performance once conditions normalize, (2) demonstrated value creation and performance enhancement from the RSA UK&I platform over the mid- to longer-term, and (3) potential resumption of larger scale M&A activity.”
* Definity Financial Corp. (DFY-T, “sector outperform”) to $44 from $50. The average is $42.41.
Mr. Hardie: " We view Definity as an evolutionary story, but what we believe truly sets it apart from its publicly traded peers are the themes related to excess capital and M&A, and what they mean for the ROE outlook and the stock’s valuation. We believe these are key reasons to like and own Definity: (1) defensively positioned with limited sensitivity to macroeconomic factors, interest rates, or financial markets; (2) solid growth prospects and a resilient model that is likely able to support double-digit earnings growth and compound BVPS by mid-single digits over the mid- to long-term; (3) a strong management team; and (4) M&A potential serves as an embedded catalyst, with mid-term takeout potential likely limiting downside risks. Definity has gone through a significant foundational transformation of its business over the last few years, culminating in the establishment of leading digital platforms and an overhaul of its commercial portfolio that should support competitive positioning and accelerated growth with sustained profitability. We believe that a high level of excess capital, an under-levered balance sheet, and M&A optionality can provide a path to mid-teens ROE, which could offer significant upside potential to the stock.”
* Trisura Group Ltd. (TSU-T, “sector outperform”) to $53 from $55.
Mr. Hardie: “We see Trisura as an attractive high-growth business with a unique and diversified Specialty P&C insurance platform. Trisura’s unique hybrid fronting platform should enable it to generate a more consistent and capital-efficient earnings stream than traditional insurers, resulting in a superior ROE and risk profile than that of more traditional insurers. As the business continues to transform, we believe these characteristics can support a premium valuation relative to its peers. The team is targeting ROE in the mid-to-high-teens and believes that given its market focus and growth initiatives, the company will be able to sustain top-line growth in the mid-to-high-teens over the next five years. The company also reiterated its goal of targeting $1-billion of book value by the end of 2027, almost doubling from its current level of just over $500 million.”
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Heading into earnings season, Canaccord Genuity’s precious metals analysts remain bullish on gold despite a recent pullback in price
“The market is pricing in a final 25 basis points Fed funds hike at this week’s FOMC meeting and expecting rate cuts in 2024 which we view as positive for gold,” they said in a Monday report. “Overall, while the incoming economic data has at times been volatile, the overall trends of economic growth, inflation, and job growth continue to slow. The yield curve remains deeply inverted and the question of whether we get a soft or hard landing remains open, in our view. The New York Fed estimates a 67-per-cent chance of recession in the next 12 months.
“Despite the recent pullback, gold is up 8 per cent year-to-date and the S&P/TSX Gold index is up 7 per cent (in US$ terms). Under the surface however, we see more robust performance lead by the intermediate producers (22.9-per-cent median) and royalties (up 7.6 per cent) vs. the senior producers (up 1.0 per cent) and we note that approximately half of our coverage universe have posted double-digit gains for the year so far. Top performers YTD include K and EDV among the seniors, EQX, DPM, LUG, ELD, NGD, TXG, AGI, CG, CXB, and ORA (all up more than 20 per cent) among the intermediate/juniors, and OR and WPM among the royalty/streaming companies. Equity valuations remain inexpensive, in our view, with the senior producers trading at 0.69 times NAV below their historical average of 0.85 times and slightly below the lower end of the 0.71-0.99 times range (+/- 1.5 std deviations). The royalty companies are roughly trading in line with their historical average at 1.53 times NAV (average of 1.56 times).”
After the firm trimmed its gold price deck by approximately 2 per cent and silver assumptions by 4 per cent, the analysts made a series of target price adjustments.
For senior producers, their changes are:
- Newmont Corp. (NEM-N/NGT-T, “buy”) to US$57 from US$63. The average on the Street is US$55.89.
- Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX-T, “buy”) to $30 from $33. Average: $22.96.
- Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM-T, “buy”) to $91 from $99. Average: $90.10.
- Kinross Gold Corp. (K-T, “buy”) to $9 from $10. Average: $8.54.
- Pan American Silver Corp. (PAAS-Q/PAAS-T, “buy”) to US$27 from US$30. Average: US$24.79.
- Endeavour Mining Corp. (EDV-T, “buy”) to $45 from $48. Average: $42.90.
- B2Gold Corp. (BTO-T, “buy”) to $8 from $9. Average: $7.46.
- SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM-T, “buy”) to $23 from $26.50. Average: $21.90.
They added: “CG precious metal top picks: Senior Producers: Endeavour Mining, Agnico-Eagle, Kinross, SSR Mining; Intermediate/Junior Producers: New Gold, Orezone Gold, Aris Mining, Calibre Mining; Royalty/streaming companies: Osisko Gold Royalties, Wheaton Precious Metals.”
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Raymond James analyst Daryl Swetlishoff thinks earnings for building materials companies are “at a material inflection point” with lagging Canadian log costs “finally deflating.”
“What’s more, with depleted end user inventories and reduced Euro and Canadian shipments, we forecast higher 2H23 commodity pricing,” he said. “Resulting upward earnings revisions bode well for share price performance.
“While the sector outperformed over the past month (up 7 per cent vs. the TSX up 4 per cent), our analysis shows current market valuations imply unreasonably low trough multiples applied to trough earnings - a function of stale broker estimates largely not reflecting reduced costs and stronger pricing, in our view. Admittedly, our refreshed financial estimates for 2Q23 are sitting well below the Street, however, we expect the market to pay more attention to improving fundamentals. As such, we recommend investors buy on potential dips as we expect stocks to move higher as the earnings recovery accelerates.”
In a quarterly earnings preview released Monday, he raised West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (WFG-N/WFG-T) to a “strong buy” recommendation from “outperform,” citing “the company’s attractive value proposition given the lag to U.S. based panel producer Louisiana Pacific over the past 3 months.”
His new U.S. dollar-based target is US$120 per share, up from $145 (Canadian) previously. The average is US$104.17.
Mr. Swetlishoff also raised the firm’s recommendation for Doman Building Materials Group Ltd. (DBM-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” after assuming coverage. His target is $8, up from $7.25 and above the $7.50 average.
“As Canada’s leading, independent distributor of lumber and building materials we highlight Doman as a (near) pure play lumber trading business boasting reliable access to both key suppliers (e.g. Canfor, Weyerhaeuser) and customers (Home Depot, Lowe’s) across NA and globally,” he said. “DBM has a strong execution history on inventories and sourcing of products with its flexible operating platform designed to mitigate commodity risk while bolstering asset utilization and turnover rates. Notably, the company has historically taken strong advantage of building materials price volatility leveraging rallying commodity markets amidst downside risk protection when prices bottom out.
“Boasting a strong track record on accretive M&A execution, we highlight the transformative Hixson acquisition (Jun-21) materially increased Doman’s U.S. footprint through acquisitions of 19 lumber treating plants and 5 specialty sawmills – complimentary to DBM’s existing footprint while located in high growth US South markets where housing activity remains strong. With the acquisition more than doubling Doman’s U.S. footprint, we are encouraged by the company’s conviction on growing its operating platform through additional accretive M&A while returning excess Free Cash Flow (FCF) to shareholders. Financing its 8.5-per-cent dividend yield with a modest payout ratio and strict working capital management, we see the company well positioned to outperform particularly as we expect DBM to leverage the recent uptick in lumber prices and rallying OSB markets.”
Conversely, pointing to limited upside to his target and “muted harvest levels,” he lowered Acadian Timber Corp. (ADN-T) to “market perform” from “outperform” with a $17 target (unchanged). The average is $16.50.
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Scotia Capital analyst George Doumet continues to prefer food processors over grocers, recommending both Maple Leaf Foods Inc. (MFI-T) and Premium Brands Holdings Corp. (PBH-T) for investors.
“From a valuation perspective, Processors’ outperformance improves during periods of decelerating inflation (such as now) – while from a more fundamental perspective, we are cautious on the Grocers’ margins (operating deleveraging and negative mix) – and believe the more value-add Processors (PBH) are well positioned to benefit from some expansion (holding price in a disinflation commodity price environment and higher throughput),” he said. “Furthermore, we expect internal initiatives at both MFI and SAP to significantly increase manufacturing efficiencies and lift margins over the next few years.
“We believe PBH and MFI are at inflection points (expecting an acceleration in organic volumes at PBH and a step up in margins at MFI) – and with the shares of both trading at discounted valuations, we see a nice setup for outperformance over the NTM [next 12 months].”
Mr. Doumet raised his target for Premium Brands, which remains his “top pick” despite having the highest year-to-date return (up 31 per cent) among the three processors in his coverage universe. He now has a target of $130, up from $121 with a “sector outperform” rating. The average on the Street is $119.40.
“Looking ahead, we see further upside to be driven by an acceleration in organic volumes at the Specialty segment (from approximately 3.5 per cent in Q1 to 7 pe cent for 2023) and, more importantly, a significant step up in margins as throughput increases at the company’s under-utilized sandwich and meat snacks capacity and as the company benefits from lower input costs,” he said. “For 2H/23 and for 2024, we are looking for margin expansion of 105 and 30 basis points (year-over-year) vs. consensus expectations of 90bps and 25bps improvements, respectively. PBH’s five-year plan of generating 10-per-cent annual organic top-line growth is ambitious (but doable, in our view), and we view the company’s adj. EBITDA margin target of 10 per cent as overly conservative (we believe they can get closer to 12 per cent plus). Lastly, at the balance sheet level, we are looking for healthy deleveraging in the 2H, supported by higher EBITDA but also improved FCF generation (wcap reversal of $100-million-plus, CLR, etc.).”
Mr. Doumet also raised his target for Maple Leaf Foods to $33.50, exceeding the $33.08 average, from $33 with a “sector outperform” rating.
“Maple Leaf’s margin recovery has been impacted by a soft (but slowly improving) Japan market and NA Pork Complex that is seeing multi-year-low processing margins,” he said. “That said, there is early evidence of a bottoming of industry processing margins (up 100 per cent plus Q3TD and trending at five-year averages) and expect an eventual improvement (led by the significant curtailment of production capacity), but the timing/quantum is difficult to predict at this time. We see a more predictable path in margin improvement from ongoing internal sources, including the ramp-up of the London plant and BCE, and more immediately (Q2 and Q3) the benefits of improved pricing and supply chain improvements. With the expectation that FCF generation should progressively improve and with a pathway for adj. EBITDA to double from today by 2024, current valuation (8 times EBITDA on our 2024E – vs. a historical average closer to 9.5 times) appears too punitive. As such, we see significant upside potential on the shares.”
He lowered his target for Saputo Inc. (SAP-T) to $33 from $35 with a “sector perform” rating. The average on the Street is $36.56.
“Saputo is the only Processor whose shares are down year-over-year (16 per cent), with most of the decline occurring following the release of Q4 results,” he said. “While Q4 results (and changes to Strategic Plan contributions from optimization initiatives) were largely in line with expectations, we did not expect a pronounced deteriorating outlook for demand and much weaker commodity market outlook. We are now looking for adj. EBITDA growth of 8 per cent in F24 and 12 per cent in F25 (vs. Strategic Plan guidance of 17-per-cent CAGR). Now that expectations have been reset lower and valuation is looking somewhat attractive (shares currently trading at 10-per-cent-plus discount to historical value), we are warming up to the name. We are also seeing early signs of bottoming in the commodity markets.”
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Desjardins Securities analyst Lorne Kalmar thinks the “resilience” of Choice Properties Real Estate Investment Trust’s (CHP.UN-T) portfolio continued to be displayed in its in-line second-quarter results, seeing it benefitting from “strengthening retail fundamentals and its exposure to industrial.”
“We continue to view CHP as a high-quality name with a defensive, in-demand portfolio deserving of a premium valuation,” he said.
On Thursday, Choice reported funds from operations per unit of 25 cents, up 5 per cent year-over-year and matching Mr. Kalmar’s projection. Net operating income rose 8 per cent to $251.8-million, topping the analyst’s $246.3-million estimate.
“Year-to-date cash SPNOI growth of 4.8 per cent is running nicely ahead of management’s 2–3-per-cent full-year guidance,” he said. “On the call, management noted that retail SPNOI growth is expected to normalize in the 1.5–2.0-per-cent range in 2H23 as it laps tougher comps. We expect full-year SPNOI to top the high end of management’s guidance range.
“Retail portfolio firing up. The 13-per-cent renewal uplift (approximately 0 per cent including 100-per-cent lift on a pandemic-era lease) was the highest quarterly figure CHP has ever recorded as management noted that leasing spreads remain exceptionally robust, underscoring the strength of the sector’s fundamentals. Post-2Q, CHP renewed 48 leases with Loblaw (2024 expiry) at 7.5-per-cent lifts (five-year WALT).”
Maintaining a “buy” recommendation for Choice units, Mr. Kalmar trimmed his target to $16 from $16.50. The average is $15.56.
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National Bank Financial analyst Rupert Merer lowered his second-quarter estimates for Altius Renewable Royalties Corp. (ARR-T) to reflect weak renewable generation and soft merchant pricing in Texas.
Ahead of the Aug. 1 release of its financial results, his revenue projection fell to $1.6-million from $2.2-million previously, which includes $1.1-million of proportionate royalty revenue. He’s now estimating adjusted EBITDA of $0.6-million, down from $1.1-million.
“With two quarters of weakness to start 2023, we believe revenue guidance for the year ($11.5-13.5-million) could be revised lower with Q2 results,” said Mr. Merer.
“While production and pricing in Texas has been a year-over-year headwind, merchant pricing has improved in recent weeks with higher temperatures. Last year, in Q3′22, high prices in the state led to results ahead of expectations, highlighting that quarterly fluctuations in the renewable power market in Texas are not unusual and can swing both ways.”
Despite near-term concerns, the analyst said his longer-term view of St. John’s-based remains unchanged.
“If ARR’s recent deals and near-term pipeline are any indication, its revenue mix should shift away from Texas over time to a more diversified all-weather portfolio,” he said. “Its recent $45-million financing agreement with Hexagon Energy adds more than 5 GW of solar and storage exposure across 43 projects and 12 states to the pipeline. In the near term, some of ARR’s royalty pipeline should move to COD, with its El Sauz project to contribute before year-end and 3.6 GW of wind and solar projects in Illinois, Indiana, Pennsylvania, Texas and other jurisdictions that should contribute by year-end 2024E. In total, ARR has exposure to a development pipeline of more than 15 GW.”
Keeping an “outperform” rating for Altius shares, Mr. Merer reduced his target to $11 from $11.75. The average is $12.82.
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In other analyst actions:
* Moffetnathanson’s Michael Morton upgraded Shopify Inc. (SHOP-N, SHOP-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” with a US$76 target, exceeding the average on the Street of US$63.86.
* Wells Fargo’s Richard Garchitorena upgraded Nutrien Ltd. (NTR-N, NTR-T) to “overweight” from “equal-weight” with a US$82 target, jumping from US$62. The average on the Street is US$75.25.
“Ahead of 2Q23 results, we see a more balanced risk/reward for fertilizer plays post a steep decline in prices and upgrade NTR,” he said.
* Credit Suisse’s Andrew Kuske lowered his targets for Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN-N/AQN-T, “outperform”) to US$10 from US$10.50, Canadian Utilities Corp. (CU-T, “neutral”) to $40 from $40.50 and Fortis Inc. (FTS-T, “neutral”) to $61.50 from $62. The averages on the Street are US$9.34, $39.50 and $60.61, respectively.
* RBC’s Douglas Miehm raised his targets for Bausch Health Companies Inc. (BHC-N/BHC-T, “sector perform”) to US$9 from US$8 and Bausch + Lomb Corp. (BLCO-N/BLCO-T, “outperform”) to US$21 from US$20. The averages are US$8.58 and US$21, respectively.
* Morgan Stanley’s Simon Flannery raised his Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI.B-T) target to $65 from $64 with an “equalweight” rating. The average is $73.25.
* CIBC’s Kevin Chiang increased his TFI International Inc. (TFII-N, TFII-T) to US$139 from US$123, keeping an “outperformer” recommendation. The average is US$132.46.
David Leeder