Skip to main content

A roundup of what The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web

North American oil prices entered bear market conditions this weak and even managers for the hedge funds specializing in the sector are tearing out their remaining hair in confusion,

" “The oil market is as complicated as I’ve seen it in a very long time,” [Doug King, trader of U.K.-based Merchant Commodity Fund] said… “I’m hesitant to short crude currently given the number of supply outages …is possibly as many as I’ve ever seen,” he added. “[But] the whole global market feels quite deflationary right now.” .. “If the world economy and oil demand really is cratering we expect there could be significant diesel builds in the U.S. and elsewhere this summer,” Mr King said. “That could give us more than enough inventory cover for the start up of IMO 2020.””

Story continues below advertisement

“Top oil trader befuddled by ‘complicated’ demand outlook” – Financial Times (paywall)

“@Patricia_Energy Oil Sinks Into Bear Market as #US Storage Jumps Most Since 1990. Total petroleum stockpiles rise by 22 million barrels” – (chart) Twitter

“US heavy truck orders are collapsing "Orders for Class-8 trucks – the heavy trucks that haul a large part of the goods-based economy across the US – plunged by 71% in May compared to May last year" – (chart) Twitter

“@SBarlow_ROB C : oil set for bounce” – (research excerpt) Twitter

***

Citi global macro strategist Jeremy Hale is predicting a U.S. recession in the second quarter of 2020,

“Fiscal policy fade, Fed overtightening and trade wars mean we take the yield curve signal seriously. U.S. recessions are never led by consumers so we are not assuaged by labour market/ income/ spending. We offer a timeline to recession where peaks in consumer confidence, leading indicators below zero and unemployment bottoming late summer would suggest a 2020 Q2 recession (as predicted by the curve) is more likely. Last week’s insurance cut analysis showed aggressive Fed action is more likely to extend the cycle than tenuous moves. If we ran the Fed, we would cut 50bp [basis points] in July.’

Story continues below advertisement

“@SBarlow_ROB C: " a timeline to recession where peaks in consumer confidence, leading indicators below zero and unemployment bottoming late summer would suggest a 2020 Q2 recession" – (research excerpt) Twitter

“Investors are betting a recession is coming, Jim Cramer says” – CNBC

***

There is no sign of thawing in the relationship between the U.S. and China as the Reuters headline “China says will fight to end if U.S. escalates trade tensions’ highlights. A separate Reuters report outlined China’s potential next steps in the trade dispute,

“China could raise tariffs from 25 per cent on some U.S. goods such as soybeans. China was the top U.S. buyer of soybeans until the trade war… The editor-in-chief of China’s influential Global Times tweeted in May that “many Chinese scholars are discussing the possibility of dumping U.S. Treasuries and how to do it specifically.” A selloff would hurt U.S. markets, driving up interest rates and pushing up borrowing costs… Some analysts have floated the idea of a one-off devaluation of the Chinese currency to make the country’s exports more competitive despite U.S. tariffs …”

There’s much more for readers who click the link below,

Story continues below advertisement

“Explainer: U.S.-China trade war - the levers they can pull” – Reuters

“ U.S. pursues sale of over $2 billion in weapons to Taiwan, sources say, angering China” – Reuters

***

Tweet of the Day: “@ericbeebo A 10-year Bund real yield of -130 bps will never not be amazing to me’ – (chart) Twitter

Diversion: “ Trudeau’s unrequited love for China” – Macleans

Newsletter: “Globalization has Peaked” – Globe Investor

Story continues below advertisement

Column: “5 Tips for investing through a trade war” – Barlow, Inside the Market

Report an error Editorial code of conduct
Tickers mentioned in this story
Unchecking box will stop auto data updates
Due to technical reasons, we have temporarily removed commenting from our articles. We hope to have this fixed soon. Thank you for your patience. If you are looking to give feedback on our new site, please send it along to feedback@globeandmail.com. If you want to write a letter to the editor, please forward to letters@globeandmail.com.

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff. Non-subscribers can read and sort comments but will not be able to engage with them in any way. Click here to subscribe.

If you would like to write a letter to the editor, please forward it to letters@globeandmail.com. Readers can also interact with The Globe on Facebook and Twitter .

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff. Non-subscribers can read and sort comments but will not be able to engage with them in any way. Click here to subscribe.

If you would like to write a letter to the editor, please forward it to letters@globeandmail.com. Readers can also interact with The Globe on Facebook and Twitter .

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff.

We aim to create a safe and valuable space for discussion and debate. That means:

  • Treat others as you wish to be treated
  • Criticize ideas, not people
  • Stay on topic
  • Avoid the use of toxic and offensive language
  • Flag bad behaviour

Comments that violate our community guidelines will be removed.

Read our community guidelines here

Discussion loading ...

Cannabis pro newsletter