A roundup of what The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web
UBS has updated their list of stocks most overweighted and underweighted by active fund managers. The list will take on added importance if the rumoured switch to value stocks occurs in 2020 – the overweighted growth stocks will likely underperform by a significant margin.
Most overweighted list starts with Visa Inc., Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc.
The most underweight stocks are Apple Inc., Nestle SA and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
“ @SBarlow_ROB UBS: Most overweight and underweight stocks by active managers” – (full table) Twitter
Consultancy group Wood Mackenzie has published their predictions for the energy sector in 2020. The most important belief is that, while oversupply conditions are set to continue, U.S. shale oil production will decline in 2020, helping OPEC generate higher commodity prices,
“We are forecasting persistent global oversupply to continue in 2020, with non-OPEC production to increase 2.3 million barrels per day (b/d) year-on-year. For the first time in four years, though, the US will contribute less than half of that non-OPEC gain, as new producers such as Guyana ramp up and US shale growth slows. Wood Mackenzie forecasts total US liquids production to rise by 1 million b/d in 2020, less than half the increase in 2018, when output rose by an astounding 2.4 million b/d”
Other predictions in the report include higher stock prices for companies with production less harmful to the environment and record installation of solar power.
“Predictions for 2020” – Wood Mackenzie
“Oil price calls for 2020 aren’t looking great for crude-producing countries” – CNBC
Macroeconomic-focused strategist Callum Thomas provided his list of the most important market charts of 2019. The comparison of developed world purchasing manager surveys and the U.S. ten-year bond yields was jarring,
“Treasuries : With the help of the PMI vs bond yield chart (and copper/gold, and copper vs CGBs) I highlighted the risk that bond yields would head lower – but it was with low conviction and I don’t think I would have imagined that they would go as low as they did. I also hedged it with my view that valuations looked expensive and sentiment quite bullish. So I give more credit to the chart than myself on this one. (8 Feb 2019) “Given the softer DM PMIs and falling copper/gold ratio, the macro pulse at the margin says there could still be a bit further to go towards the downside for bond yields.”
“Our Best Charts and Calls of 2019” – Topdown Charts
“@SBarlow_ROB From @topdowncharts , I shouldnt have been as surprised at this one as i was” – (chart) Twitter
Column: “Surprisingly weak retails sales data may have negative implications for real estate” – Barlow, Inside the Market
Diversion: “A new type of airplane wing that adapts midflight could change air travel” – M.I.T. Technology Review
Tweet of the Day: