Skip to main content
top links

A roundup of what The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web

John Authers has been a prominent voice at the Financial Times for a long time but recently announced a move to Bloomberg. As a chilling denoument to his FT tenure, Mr. Authers argues that the next global financial crisis will hit pensioners,

“Pension funds have taken on many of the risks that were once held by banks. Low bond yields, which make it more expensive to guarantee an income, have forced them to take extra risks. They now hold assets, such as hedge fund and private equity investments, with much concealed leverage. And many companies have transferred the risk of bad investment performance from their shareholders to savers – and savers are not usually well-equipped to deal with them. The result: the risk of a sudden banking collapse, which almost happened 10 years ago, has reduced. But the risk of social crisis, as people enter retirement without enough money, is rising”

“Legacy of Lehman Brothers is a global pensions mess” – Authers, Financial Times (paywall)


U.S. sanctions on Iran have produced oil prices last seen during the heady days of 2014,

““Iran will lose sizeable export volumes, and given OPEC+ reluctance to raise output, the market is ill-equipped to fill the supply gap,” Harry Tchilinguirian, global head of commodity markets strategy at French bank BNP Paribas, told the Reuters Global Oil Forum on Tuesday.”

“Oil hits four-year high after OPEC+ shows no sign of turning on the taps” – Reuters

“A warning for oil bulls excited by the prospect of $100 oil: A rally in prices may be short-lived “ – Bloomberg

“Who wins and who loses when oil hits $100?” – Bloomberg


Chinese officials offered to negotiate trade issues with the U.S. president but are tired of bullying tactics,

“A senior Chinese official said on Tuesday it is difficult to proceed with trade talks with the United States while Washington is putting “a knife to China’s neck”, a day after both sides heaped fresh tariffs on each other’s goods… ““Now that the United States has adopted such a huge trade restriction measure ... how can the negotiations proceed? It’s not an equal negotiation,” [Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen ] said, stressing the United States has abandoned its mutual understanding with China.”

“China says U.S. putting ‘knife to its neck’, hard to proceed on trade” – Reuters

“Trump shakes Xi’s aura of invincibility” – Nikkei News


Nomura FX strategists recommend shorting the Canadian dollar against the Aussie dollar,

“Tthere has been a lack of meaningful progress on NAFTA negotiations with Canada. The likelihood of a deal being finalised ahead of the mid-terms is declining, and a failure to reach a deal this week could prompt Trump to threaten auto-tariffs or even a NAFTA withdrawal . We believe a lot of positivity has been priced into CAD… We still believe the BOC will hike at a slower pace than the Fed, with growth rates in Canada to slow, in our view. This will keep the BOC cautious and data dependent.”

The loonie has been supported to some extent by higher crude prices but Nomura is looking for oil prices to weaken after having substantially outperformed the rest of the commodity complex.

“@SBarlow_ROB Nomura likes AUDCAD” – (research excerpt) Twitter


Tweet of the Day:

Diversion: “New work led by Darren Baker, a biologist at the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota, published in Nature this week, suggests the accumulation of senescent cells within the brains of mice causes the animals to develop neurodegenerative diseases—and that clearing out these cells can help prevent them.”

“Ageing: Worn-out cells eventually stop dividing” – The Economist