Trump will pay a price for bullying tactics on trade: U.S. economist

A roundup of what The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web

Tyler Cowen, economics professor at Virginia-based George Mason University, argues that the U.S. president is being short-sighted by applying bullying tactics towards Canada,

“Canadians and Canadian politicians now feel slighted, and it will be harder for Canada to support U.S. initiatives, especially those led by Trump, in the future. It may be a long time before Canada feels like an even vaguely equal partner again. In the meantime, the U.S. and Canada have ongoing dealings and negotiations concerning water rights, border and migration issues, intelligence sharing, terror prevention, and presenting a (relatively) united front against other foreign powers, including Russia in the Arctic. The marginal gains in trade just don’t seem worth the deterioration in the relationship.”

“Trump’s NAFTA renegotiation” – Marginal Revolution, Bloomberg

“Canada ready to make concessions on dairy to secure NAFTA deal” – Report on Business

“Kudlow says Trump will force Canada’s hand on trade, here’s how” – Fox

“Donald Trump’s updated Nafta agreement will do more harm than good” – Financial Times (paywall)

“Canada, U.S. set for second day of NAFTA talks amid growing optimism” – Reuters

“Trump isn't the biggest problem facing Canada's overstretched economy” – Bloomberg

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Markets with broad-based leadership – more stocks helping push benchmarks higher – are considered less fragile and more sustainable. FT Alphaville uncovers signals that leadership is moving the other way, narrowing, threatening future returns,

“While Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson concedes that the cumulative A/D line is ticking higher, he stresses that other indicators of market breadth are saying something quite different. The percentage of stocks making new highs and the percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving averages have fallen. More worryingly, the S&P 500's narrowness has become “extreme” in its most recent leg higher… The combined market capitalisation [for FANG stocks] of $4.1trn is just about equal to the combined market capitalisation of the 283 smallest S&P 500 members, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch. So long as investors piled into the FAAMGs and other technology stocks, market-watchers could sideline the risks brought on by this dominance. Not anymore. Inflows to the sector more broadly have slowed in recent months.”

“The bull market is running out of brea(d)th” – FT Alphaville (free with registration)

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Tweet of the day:

Diversion: “38 movies you shouldn’t miss this fall, including ‘Venom’ and ‘Creed 2’” – Business Insider

Tuesday Newsletter: “Financial abuse of the elderly becomes a tragic trend, pot stocks in valuation danger zone, and playing defence with bond ETFs” – Globe Investor