Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Heading into third-quarter earnings season for Canadian property and casualty insurance companies, National Bank Financial analyst Jaeme Gloyn expects “continued outperformance” from the sector, seeing its outlook remaining “robust.”
“As outlined in our 2022 P&C Outlook in February 2022 and reiterated in April 2022 and July 2022, we believe the sector remains well positioned for the near term given hard market conditions and rising interest rates that support improved investment income (in particular for FFH),” he said. “We maintain our view that pricing trends will continue to outpace loss cost trends overall, even for Personal Auto lines, as driving behaviour has yet to complete its path to normalization and auto repair/parts price increases still lag U.S. trends. In addition, we see continued strong momentum in U.S. specialty lines markets.”
In a research report released Wednesday, Mr. Gloyn reiterated his view that “there’s something for everyone” in the sector.
“Small to Mid-Cap Growth? Look to TSU and DFY. Large-Cap Value/GARP? Look to FFH and IFC,” he said.
“TSU remains at the top of our pecking order given a rapid growth outlook but is also an attractive value play with upside to specialty insurance peer valuations. Although one of the best performing Financials stocks year-to-date, FFH remains the best value idea in our coverage. FFH also offers investors rapid top-line growth and leverage to a higher interest rate environment. As it relates to IFC and DFY, we continue to believe share price acceleration is contingent on proof of execution. We see no reason to adjust our view that both companies will continue to deliver.”
He raised his target prices for three of his four stocks in the sector. In order of preference, his changes are:
1. Trisura Group Ltd. (TSU-T, “outperform”) to $65 from $62. The average on the Street is $55.71.
“From our perspective, TSU currently trades at a cheap 23 times consensus 2022 EPS and 19 times consensus 2023 EPS,” he said. “This represents a significant discount to U.S. specialty insurance peers trading at an average P/E of 35 times on 2022 EPS (30 times on 2023), and only a slight premium to DFY trading at 21 times (18 times on 2023) and IFC trading at 17 times (16 times on 2023), even though consensus forecasts TSU will deliver more rapid earnings growth and stronger profitability. Our target valuation premium reflects i) our view TSU will execute on our robust revenue/earnings growth forecasts, ii) premium valuations in the insurance peer group, and iii) premium valuations ascribed to specialty lines-focused companies delivering consistent double-digit ROE/EPS growth.”
2. Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FFH-T, “outperform”) remains $1,100. Average: $919.29.
“Although one of the best performing Financials stocks year-to-date, FFH remains the best value idea in our coverage,” he said. “Still trading below book value at 0.84 [times, the market is pricing FFH at an ROE of 6 per cent. We believe FFH can deliver sustainable long-run ROE of at least 10 per cent through a combination of consistently strong underwriting growth/profits and improving total investment return performance, in particular as interest rates move higher.”
3. Intact Financial Corp. (IFC-T, “outperform”) to $238 from $230. Average: $217.50.
“IFC continues to merit a premium valuation as we expect the company will i) successfully integrate and operate RSA’s Canada and UK&I operations (delivering on synergy upside), and ii) produce roughly mid-teens OROE through 2023 and beyond,” he said. “While risk to Personal Auto profitability has risen given inflationary forces seen in the United States, we believe rate increases will continue to outpace loss cost trends. Persistent hard market conditions also increase the likelihood IFC will deliver earnings outperformance in the near term.”
4. Definity Financial Corp. (DFY-T, “outperform”) to $45 from $39. Average: $41.68.
“While DFY appears overvalued based on simple P/B to ROE regression, we believe further valuation upside will materialize as DFY proves out execution to drive ROE to 13 per cent or more,” he said. “That said, execution risks on this path, a higher exposure to personal auto (42 per cent of premiums), and valuation that is approaching full value keep DFY at the bottom of our pecking order.”
Citing its execution, margin improvement and free cash conversion, Raymond James analyst Michael Glen raised his recommendation for Martinrea International Inc. (MRE-T) to “outperform” from “market perform” following the release of stronger-than-anticipated third-quarter results after the bell on Tuesday.
The Vaughan, Ont.-based auto parts manufacturer reported revenue of $1.2-billion, exceeding the $1.1-billion estimate of both the analyst and the Street. Driven by its performance in North American, earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $140.2-million easily topped estimates ($123.2-million and $119.7-million, respectively),
“Overall, we view the results as quite positive given this is the third consecutive quarter Martinrea has demonstrated a shift away from the considerable challenges and headwinds that faced the business during 2021,” said Mr. Glen. “While some of these challenges were related to component/chip shortages that impacted customer volumes (which are still lingering but have eased), MRE results had further been hampered by heavy program launch costs (i.e., Jeep Grand Cherokee/Wagoneer, Ford Mach-E, Nissan Pathfinder/Rogue). Management guidance through 2022 has consistently pointed to an easing of such launch costs, and we have clearly seen this come through in the reported numbers. This has been coupled with some degree of success in terms of negotiating concessions with customers to cover higher input costs [of which the most significant is in energy (we believe in Europe)].”
With the results, Martinrea raised its 2023 guidance, expecting sales of $4.8-$5.0-billion (from $4.6-$4.8-billion), a 6-7-per-cent operating margin (versus 8 per cent) and $150-$200-million in free cash flow ($20--million).
“Although we continue to view the free-cash target as aggressive — and we forecast more conservatively (RJL 2023 estimated FCF = $116-million) — we must acknowledge improving visibility on the guidance coupled with very strong messaging and focus toward free cash conversion,” he said,” said Mr. Glen. “Even on our lower FCF forecast, our implied 2023E FCF yield is 16 per cent. In that regard, with the stock currently trading at 3.8 times our revised 2023 EPS, and more recently lagging its auto parts peers through October, we are upgrading.”
His target for Martinrea shares jumped to $13.50 from $12. The average is $14.33.
Other analysts making changes include:
* Scotia Capital’s Mark Neville to $13 from $12.50 with a “sector perform” rating.
“On a sequential basis, adj. EBIT was up 54 per cent on (only) a 7-per-cent increase in production sales, with the improvement driven by lower launch costs (should continue), less volatility in customer production schedules (hopefully continues), commercial recoveries (negotiations continue), and mix,” said Mr. Neville. “The Negative: management updated its 2023 outlook, with, by our math, the mid-point of adj. EBIT guidance down approximately 15 per cent (vs. prior), due to lower assumed volumes, a slower-than-expected normalization in supply chain, continued inflationary pressures, higher interest rates, etc.”
* BMO’s Peter Sklar to $10.50 from $10 with a “market perform” rating.
“We found the quarter to be particularly strong and believe the larger contributor was Martinrea’s launch cadence with a bulge of new program launches now finally beginning to mature and contribute earnings as opposed to prior ramp losses. Notwithstanding the strong quarter and favourable earnings outlook for 2023, we find that auto parts stocks generally underperform the market during periods of Fed tightening,” said Mr. Sklar.
* CIBC’s Krista Friesen to $11 from $10 with a “neutral” rating.
Pointing to a “favourable” outlook for agriculture and seeing “attractive long-term growth potential,” TD Securities analyst Michael Tupholme initiated coverage of Ag Growth International Inc. (AFN-T) with a “buy” recommendation on Wednesday.
“Current global agriculture fundamentals are positive and supportive of AGI’s near- to medium-term outlook, in our view,” he said. “Relatively tight global crop stocks-to-use ratios and historically elevated crop prices are likely to support strong agricultural production volumes (key demand driver for AGI’s equipment and solutions) over the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, we are also constructive on the broader agriculture sector’s long-term outlook (supported by factors such as population and income growth, and the need to upgrade arguably inadequate agriculture infrastructure in many major crop-producing regions).”
“We are attracted to the company-specific revenue growth and margin improvement opportunities that AGI offers. We believe that AGI is well-positioned to realize market-share gains, particularly in a variety of international regions where AGI has more recently focused its expansion efforts. We also see strong multi-year growth potential for AGI’s higher-margin Food platform and Digital segment. Meanwhile, a stated focus by management on integration and optimization initiatives is also likely to support improved margins, in our view.”
Mr. Tupholme called the Winnipeg-based company “unique,” given it is one of few Canadian public companies providing investor exposure to the agricultural sector.
“AGI has over time evolved from an agriculture equipment supplier primarily focused on the North American grain market to a global infrastructure partner in each of the company’s five focus platforms (grain, fertilizer, seed, feed, and food), which has brought with it diversification benefits and considerably expanded AGI’s opportunity set and potential,” he noted.
Seeing its valuation as “attractive,” he set a target of $49 per share. The current average is $52.50.
“AGI is trading at 7.2 times our 12-month forward adjusted EBITDA estimate, near the lower end of the stock’s 10-year historical EV/FTM [forward 12-month] EBITDA valuation range of 6.9–11.5 times,” the analyst said.
Believing long-term interest rates are “close to peaking,” National Bank Financial analyst Maxim Sytchev sees value in shares of Colliers International Group Inc. (CIGI-Q, CIGI-T) at current levels, recommending “picking up a great business (at a reasonable price).”
The Toronto-based professional services and investment management company fell 3.7 per cent on Tuesday following the premarket release of weaker-than-anticipated third-quarter quarterly report. Mr. Sytchev said the results were “marred” by its Capital Markets business, calling it “a pinch point.”
“Due to Capital Market’s paucity of transactions, consolidated organic growth will tip into single digit negative territory in Q4/22E (as buyers and sellers try to establish a clearing level,” he said. “Despite headline compression, management sees year-over-year margin growth in Q4/22E as higher profitability of recently acquired management assets will offset compression on the transactional side. ... Leaning into NCIB is a priority, although that needs to be balanced vs. M&A.”
Colliers reported net revenue of US$1.108-billion, up 8 per cent year-over-year and above the expectations of both Mr. Sytchev ($1.097-billion) and the Street ($1.062-billion). Its business lines all saw double-digit gains except for Capital Markets, which was down 8 per cent while accounting for 24 per cent of its top line.
Adjusted earnings per share came in at US$1.41, missing both the analyst’s US$1.70 expectation and the consensus forecast of $1.67.
“CIGI is a compounder, and we are in the early innings of estimates/target price cuts,” said Mr. Sytchev. “We cannot be certain when Capital Markets malaise will subside, but we doubt that medium-term interest rates can stay at current levels. We would venture to say that nine to 12 months would be sufficient for Capital Markets business to realign itself. With that, we are in a reset mode as investors will be prodding for the bottom in expectations for CIGI. In 2015, we had 37 per cent of business as recurring; now that percentage is close to 55 per cent.
“We have an opportunity then to pick up an excellent business at a reasonable price over the short-term forecast horizon, although it would probably be wise to wait for the expectations to take their proverbial step down first. Let’s also not forget that it is a call on whether we are facing ‘peak long-term rates now; if one believes we are close to the top (as we do), we could do worse than starting to pick up CIGI at current levels.”
The analyst “inevitably compressed the non-recurring side of the business in light of increased rates hampering transactional activity,” leading him to trim his revenue and earnings estimates for both 2022 and 2023. He’s now projecting diluted EPS of US$7.09 in the current fiscal year, down from US$7.52, and US$7.38 for next year, versus a previous estimate of US$8.11.
That led Mr. Sytchev to cut his target for Colliers’ U.S.-listed shares to US$122 from US$166, reiterating an “outperform” rating. The current average on the Street is US$135.43.
Elsewhere, others making changes include:
* Scotia Capital’s Michael Doumet to US$115 from US$120 with a “sector perform” rating.
“CIGI trades at 9.6 times EV/EBITDA on our 2023 estimates, below its historical average of 10 times, despite its growing IM [Investment Management] business (i.e. higher multiple business),” he said. “For years, secular trends have worked in tandem with cyclical trends. While secular trends remain favorable (market share gains, cross-selling, etc.), in our view, we expect the backdrop to lead a normalization and Capital Markets (i.e. cyclical), which should also compress margins in the NTM (ex. IM). In our opinion, CIGI’s multiple will normalize as visibility in its Capital Markets and Leasing businesses improves.”
* BMO’s Stephen MacLeod to US$142 from US$165 with an “outperform” rating.
“Colliers reported in-line Q3/22 operating results and slightly lowered its 2022E guidance; not unexpected given the challenging macro backdrop,” said Mr. MacLeod. “While Capital Markets headwinds are expected to continue, the tone of the call was positive as it relates to Colliers’s focus on recurring revenue (IM 30-per-cent PF EBITDA; recurring approximately 55 per cent), acquisition pipeline, liquidity position, and long-term track record of success despite the macro backdrop. While the macro outlook is likely to remain choppy in the near term, the stock is down 38 per cent year-to-date, and we see attractive risk-reward.
Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI-N, TRI-T) is “proving resilient but not immune” to the impact of deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, particularly the impact of inflation, according to RBC Dominion Securities analyst Drew McReynolds.
“We view Thomson Reuters as a high-quality core holding with both growth and defensive attributes,” he said in a report released Wednesday. “We believe the company has the ability to deliver average annual total returns of approximately 10–15 per cent over the longer term and has entered a new phase of 8–12-per-cent annual dividend growth underpinned by a step-up in FCF generation driven by the ongoing Change Program. While not immune to an economic slowdown, we believe revenues should prove among the most resilient in our coverage and we believe the company remains on track to meet its outlook for 2022 and 2023.”
On Tuesday, TSX-listed shares of the Toronto-based news and information company slid 3.2 per cent following the premarket release of third-quarter results. It reiterated its financial guidance for the current fiscal year and 2023. however it warned “any worsening of the global economic or business environment could impact the company’s ability to achieve its outlook.”
“To date, management is not seeing any material revenue deterioration in what would normally be the cyclical “soft pockets” of Reuters News, Global Print or transaction revenues,” said Mr. McReynolds. “Net sales activity remains strong alongside constructive ongoing renewals of multi-year contracts (with Q4 being seasonally strongest for renewals). Having said this, management does acknowledge a more prolonged sales cycle within Corporates. Our 2023 organic revenue growth estimate of 5.2 per cent remains below current guidance of 5.5-6.0 per cent on the assumption that revenues, while for the most part proving exceptionally resilient, will not be completely immune to U.S. recessionary headwinds.”
“Factoring in a slightly lower margin trajectory due mainly to inflation and reinvestments,” the analyst reduced his full-year 2023 and 2024 earnings per share estimates to US$3.29 and US$3.73, respectively from US$3.45 and US$3.86 previously.
That led him to cut his target for Thomson Reuters shares to US$116 from US$118 with an “outperform” rating (unchanged). The average on the Street is US$117.27.
Other analysts making adjustments include:
* BMO’s Tim Casey to $165 from $160 with an “outperform” rating.
“Q3 results were encouraging with beats in Adj. EBITDA and EPS. F22 and F23 guides were maintained, but the company is cautious based on macroeconomic concerns. Thomson’s core products deliver critical workflow solutions and enable efficiency gains, which along with product investment, should provide stability against external pressures. We trimmed our 2023/24 EBITDA estimates by roughly 3 per cent. We continue to expect solid revenue growth and margin expansion. Moreover, we highlight the clear line of sight to an overcapitalized balance sheet at TRI given its LSEG holdings and attractive FCF conversion,” said Mr. Casey.
* CIBC World Markets’ Scott Fletcher to US$124 from US$132 with an “outperformer” rating.
“After a solid quarter that included better-than-expected profitability, we maintain our view that TRI shares are a strong defensive option in an uncertain economic environment,” said Mr. Fletcher. “With a substantial recurring revenue base and products that serve economically resilient end markets, TRI is well set up to realize the benefits from its Change Program investments in upcoming quarters. We also see further upside to our estimates from M&A as TRI uses its strong balance sheet to take advantage of a more attractive valuation environment.”
* Canaccord Genuity’s Aravinda Galappatthige to US$118 from US$122 with a “buy” rating.
* JP Morgan’s Andrew Steinerman to US$111 from US$115 with a “neutral” rating.
Citing his “increasingly cautious outlook amidst the softening macro backdrop,” RBC Dominion Securities analyst Sabahat Khan cut his forecast for Gildan Activewear Inc. (GIL-N, GIL-T) through 2023 ahead of Thursday’s premarket release of its third-quarter results.
“For Q3, we expect investor focus to be on: 1) management commentary on the demand outlook in the wholesale channel; 2) inventory position in the distributor channel; 3) POS/demand trends at retail and any notable variation across the various channels; and, 4) any updates on capital allocation plans,” he said. “Although cotton prices have been volatile over the past 6 months, we do not foresee material risk to Gildan’s results.”
For the quarter, Mr. Khan is projecting sales of US$831.5-million, up 3.7 per cent year-over-year and in line with the US$831.1-million consensus. That led to adjusted diluted earnings per share of 80 US cents, flat year-over-year and a penny below the Street’s expectation.
However, after reducing his EPS estimate for the next quarter by 4 US cents, his full-year 2022 projection slid to US$3.12 from US$3.16. His 2023 forecast slid to US$3.02 from US$3.35.
Seeing the Montreal-based company’s balance sheet in “good shape,” Mr. Khan said: “As of Q2 reporting, Gildan’s leverage stood at 0.9 times and its cash balance was $74-million, with the company having access to a further $785-million in shortterm borrowing capacity. Going forward, we believe the company’s capital allocation priorities will be capex/internal investments (e.g., the Phase 1 Kohinoor facility) and returning capital via share buyback and dividends. Recall that Gildan renewed its NCIB program in August to repurchase 5 per cent of the company’s shares over the course of the following year. During Q3, we estimate that Gildan repurchased 3.4 million shares (1.8 per cent of diluted s/ o exiting Q2/22) at an average price of $29.91/share.”
With his reductions, Mr. Khan cut his target for Gildan shares to US$40 from US$47 with an “outperform” rating. The average target on the Street is US$40.56.
“Over the recent quarters, we have been encouraged by the cost-containment measures, FCF generation, and improving POS trends in the Activewear segment. In 2022 and beyond, we believe Gildan will exit the pandemic in a stronger competitive position and with a larger TAM,” he said.
National Bank Financial analyst Cameron Doerksen said he’s “cautious” ahead of the Nov. 10 release of CAE Inc.’s (CAE-T) second-quarter 2023 financial results due to concerns about its Defence business, but emphasized “positive long-term thesis” remain intact.
“While CAE has faced some significant challenges with its Defence business that has created anxiety for investors, our underlying positive view on CAE is informed by our expectation that the Civil segment will continue to recover, noting that even assuming Defence margins recover to more acceptable levels, Civil will still account for approximately 72 per cent of total company EBIT,” he said. “Indeed, based on our sum-of-parts analysis, we peg the value of CAE’s Civil segment at $22.50/share implying that the market is ascribing a modest 4.0 times EV/EBITDA multiple to CAE’s Defence segment.”
“Recall that in fiscal Q1 not only were underlying Defence segment margins exceptionally poor (1.9-per-cent EBIT margin excluding contract adjustments), but the company took $29-million in charges related to adjustments on two large contracts. While management last quarter indicated that it did not expect further charges related to its Defence backlog, the risk remains. If there are further charges in Q2, investor confidence in the profitability of CAE’s large Defence backlog (over $5.0 billion) would be further impaired with negative consequences for the stock.”
For the quarter, Mr. Doerksen is projecting revenue of $945-million, up from $744-million during the same period a year ago and in line with the Street’s forecast of $949-million. However, he expects earnings per share to fall from 17 cents, which is the current consensus estimate, to 14 cents.
Taking a “more conservative” view on Defence margins through fiscal 2024, he lowered his estimates and warned the company’s 2023 guidance could be “optimistic.”
“With the Q1 report, management revised its F2023 operating income forecast to a mid-20-per-cent increase (was mid-30-per-cent), suggesting an operating income of $555 million (previously $600 million implied),” he said. “The new guidance implies a significant improvement in both Defence and Civil in H2 with a particularly strong quarter in Q4. We believe that there is risk around the updated guidance (we have trimmed our forecast for Defence and now forecast total company F2023 EBIT of $481 million).”
Maintaining an “outperform” rating for CAE shares due to the reductions to his near-term estimates, Mr. Doerksen lowered his target to $33 from $38. The average is $32.50.
In other analyst actions:
* Citing increased capex risk and share price appreciation since he upgraded the stock in June, CIBC World Markets’ Bryce Adams lowered Ero Copper Corp. (ERO-T) to “neutral” from “outperformer” with an $18 target, down from $21 and below the $19.82 average on the Street.
* TD Securities’ Graham Ryding lowered his Canaccord Genuity Group Inc. (CF-T) target to $11, below the $11.63 average, from $12.50 with a “buy” rating.
* In a research note titled Risk-Reward Still Well In Favour of Reward, Scotia Capital’s Mario Saric trimmed his CAP REIT (CAR.UN-T) target to $54.50 from $59.25, keeping a “sector outperform” rating ahead of the Nov. 8 release of its third-quarter results. The average is $55.61.
“We felt CAR’s higher PEG ratio was a question mark, but still believe improved per unit growth through 2024 (on positive demand/supply imbalance; see today’s higher Federal immigration targets) will help,” said Mr. Saric. “We expect better SSREV trends in Q3, which should help sentiment, as would substantial low-cap rate dispositions (redeploying into debt and NCIB; CAR has been active). Bottom-line, we still see an attractive risk-adjusted return, with CAR trading near trough NAV discount, providing good protection in a slowing economy (regulated rent growth becomes more valuable), and possessing a legitimate 10-15-per-cent-plus portfolio MTM.”
* In an earnings preview for Canadian asset managers, Barclays’ John Aiken cut his targets for CI Financial Corp. (CIX-T, “overweight”) to $20 from $22, Fiera Capital Corp. (FSZ-T, “equal-weight”) to $9.50 from $10 and IGM Financial Inc. (IGM-T, “underweight”) to $35 from $39. The averages on the Street are $17.84, $9.93 and $41.29, respectively.
“We are anticipating another quarter of earnings retracement for the asset managers as market capitulation and a weak sales environment have driven lower fee earning assets for the group. We are lowering our earnings estimates heading into reporting, resulting in lower price targets for the group,” said Mr. Aiken.
* BMO’s Tom MacKinnon cut his ECN Capital Corp. (ECN-T) target to $6 from $7.50, below the $7.41 average, with a “sector perform” rating.
* UBS’ Ross Fowler raised its Fortis Inc. (FTS-T) target by $1 to $52. The average is $56.79.
* National Bank’s Patrick Kenny bumped his target for Gibson Energy Inc. (GEI-T) to $24 from $23, keeping a “sector perform” rating. The average is $25.39.
* RBC’s Irene Nattel raised her Pet Valu Holdings Ltd. (PET-T) target to $45, exceeding the $43.33 average, from $43 with an “outperform” rating.
“We reiterate our view of PET as a compelling, growth oriented, staple leaning, defensive SMID-cap idea in Canadian specialty retail. Performance and outlook supportive of the company’s premium valuation, and consistent with execution of strong long-term growth opportunity outlined at IPO,” she said.
* Desjardins Securities’ Doug Young lowered his Power Corp. of Canada (POW-T) target to $36 from $38, below the $39.25 average, with a “buy” rating.
* Prior to its earnings release after the bell on Wednesday, RBC’s Sabahat Khan cut his Spin Master Corp. (TOY-T) target to $61 from $65 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $61.50.
“We expect investor focus at Q3 reporting to be on: 1) management commentary on POS trends through Q3 across the company’s major markets; 2) outlook commentary/any changes to 2022 guidance; 3) commentary on the supply chain backdrop and product availability heading into the holiday season; 4) trends in the Digital Games segment; and, 5) views on capital allocation (i.e., how active the company intends to be on M&A amidst the current operating environment),” he said.
* RBC’s Sam Crittenden lowered his target for Teck Resources Ltd. (TECK.B-T) to $52 from $60 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $52.53.
“While our estimates and price target fell, reflecting Teck’s updated guidance, we believe this creates more achievable targets and sets the stage for better quarterly execution in 2023. Teck remains well positioned to take advantage of the current high met coal prices and deliver significant copper growth in the coming years,” said Mr. Crittenden.
* IA Capital Markets’ Matthew Weekes raised his Topaz Energy Corp. (TPZ-T) target by $1 to $26.50 with a “buy” rating. Others making changes: RBC’s Luke Davis to $30 from $29 with an “outperform” rating and BMO’s Ray Kwan to $32 from $30 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $30.16.
“TPZ’s Q3/22 results and updated 2022 guidance were overall in line with our expectations,” said Mr. Weekes. “Following the completion of the Deltastream GORR acquisition in October, TPZ is currently the largest royalty producer in the Clearwater, and based on expected production growth in the play along with Tourmaline’s NEBC Montney development plan, TPZ estimates that its gross underlying production base can grow at an 6-per-cent CAGR [compound annual growth rate] through 2026. Operators were active on TPZ’s acreage during the quarter and the Company expects drilling to increase during Q4. TPZ’s expectations for Q4/22 and 2023 royalty production are higher than our prior forecasts excluding acquisitions. We are increasing our near-term production to better align with TPZ’s guidance.”