Skip to main content
top links

A roundup of what The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow is reading today on the Web

Citi strategist Mark Schofield asked the central investor question in a research report released early Monday morning, “When does a correction become a bear market?”,

“We fear that the investment backdrop is becoming more likely to support extended down-trades … The key issue for investors, however, is not just the business cycle but the market reaction and the timing of the inflexion point in the cycle. Or, more precisely, the timing of when the markets begin to price the turn in the cycle … [Our] bear market checklist tells us that only 4/18 bear market signals are currently flashing, as opposed to 17.5 and 13 in 2000 and 2007, respectively. However as [Citi credit strategist Matt King] notes, QE has distorted credit spreads and other asset prices. As QE is reversed, it is quite easy to imagine how 4 could become 8 or 9 signals flashing sell … the distorting effects that were caused by QE may also mean that the transition through the current phase happens much faster than we think.”

“@SBarlow_ROB C : "We fear that the investment backdrop is becoming more likely to support extended down-trades." – (research excerpt) Twitter

“@chigrl Global, Advanced Economies and EM trade volume #growth have been #slowing, with worsening US-China trade tensions likely dragging it down further” – (chart) Twitter

====

U.S. president Donald Trump offhandedly mentioned that an additional and sizable series of tariffs on China are ready to be announced, and Chinese equities are lower overnight as a result,

“[Trump] said he could move "very soon" to impose tariffs on $200bn (£155bn) worth of products with taxes on another $267bn "ready to go on short notice". If both sets of tariffs go ahead it would mean virtually all of China's US exports would be subject to new duties.”

“Trump warns further China tariffs 'ready to go'” – BBC

“Europe leads fightback after Asian shares floored again” – Reuters

“Apple supplier shares slide after Trump tells tech giant to make products in U.S.” – Reuters

“China stocks slump as investors brace for next US tariff hit” – Financial Times (paywall)

=====

That other kind of Canadian real estate, commercial, is setting records for investment,

“Transactions reached C$16.5 billion ($12.5 billion). That’s 38 percent more than the previous record, set in the first quarter of last year, and more than twice the five-year quarterly average, CBRE Group Inc. said in a report Monday. Deal volume for the first six months was C$26.8 billion, a half-year record. .. Two large purchases that closed in the second quarter dominated the action -- Choice Properties’ acquisition of Canadian Real Estate Investment Trust, and Blackstone Property Partners’ purchase of Pure Industrial Real Estate Investment Trust. Together the deals accounted for 45 percent of the total.’

“Investors Lift Canadian Commercial Real Estate to Record Quarter” – Bloomberg

=====

Tweet of the Day:

Diversion: “'A large grain of salt': Why journalists should avoid reporting on most food studies” – CBC