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Wheat, ADM Update

ONE44 Analytics - Sat Nov 11, 2023

Wheat

(ZWZ23)(WEAT) 

December

Wheat has been caught between 78.6% Fibonacci retracements after coming off of a 23.6% retracement back to the 7/25/23 high at 600.00. The break from there failed to make a new low and held 78.6% back to the low at 553.50. Following the ONE44 78.6% rule the short term target was 78.6% the other way at 594.00, this was also a major Gann square.

Following that same rule we are looking for 78.6% the other way again at 565.50, this is also a major Gann square.

This is what our subscribers received in advance of these moves.

11/2/23

Today's low was 554.75 and it still can hit 553.00, or trade below it, however we want the close back above 553.00 and even better would be a close above the 565.50 major Gann square.

Use 553.00 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, a failure to make a new low that comes in the 78.6% area can be the start of the next Bull move, so the long term target is the area of the... The short term target is 78.6% the other way at 594.00 to the 10/20/23 high, this is also a major Gann square.

 11/9/23

This week's rally took it right to the short term target of 78.6% the other way based on the ONE44 78.6% rule. It still has the chance of being a long term bottom using the same rule once 594.00 gets taken out.

Use 594.00 as the swing point for the week.

 Below it, following the ONE44 78.6% rule that got us up to 594.00, we will be looking for 78.6% back the other way at 565.50, this is also a major Gann square. On an extended move lower.....

This post is just to show why we feel the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of all markets.

It Is Everywhere.

(ADM) 

We did a post on 8/22/23 saying the market needed to hold 80.70 (38.2%) or it could go on to complete the ONE44 61.8% rule and hit 61.8% the other way.

It fell short of 61.8% at 76.65 and the next rally could only get to 38.2% back on 9/14/23. This turned the short term negative and new lows followed.
The next attempt to rally could only get 23.6% on 10/18/23 showing that this market is extremely weak. The last rally attempt on 11/3/23 also could not get above the new 23.6% level at 73.47, this was also a major Gann square.


Now

Use 73.47 as the swing point for now.

Above it, there are a couple of key levels to look for that have a combination of retracements. The two most important highs to retrace to, are the ATH on 4/21/22 and the last high on 7/26/23 when it hit 61.8% back to the ATH. The first hurdle is 76.45, this is 23.6% to the ATH and 38.2% back to the 7/26/23 high. The short term trend will not turn positive until it can take out 38.2% and 61.8% of the same two highs at 81.00.

Below 73.47 the trend remains extremely negative and the long term target is 38.2% back of the ATH and ATL at 63.07, this is also a major Gann square. The short term target is the next major gann square at 68.02.

ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point

Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.

If you like this type of analysis and trade the Grain/Livestock futures you can become a Premium Member.

You can also follow us on YouTube for more examples of how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.

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On the date of publication, Nick Ehrenberg did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.