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The Bank of Canada may be in pause mode, but the U.S. Federal Reserve is absolutely not. In fact, markets are now pricing in another percentage point of U.S. rate increases by July.

That’s driving up peak interest rate expectations, boosting U.S. bond yields and taking Canadian rates along for the ride. Once again, Canada’s five-year yield – which leads fixed mortgage rates – is approaching its October high, which was its highest level in a decade and a half.

The result will be imminently higher fixed mortgage rates. Multiple lenders are jacking up their mortgage pricing on Thursday and Friday.

McLister: When your bank suggests you lock in your variable rate mortgage, it has an angle

All of this has only a questionable impact on the Bank of Canada. Markets are pricing in only a one per cent chance of a rate hike at next Wednesday’s BoC meeting.

Most economists believe that the strong economic start to 2023 will soon stall under the weight of oppressive interest rates and high consumer debt loads. If they’re right, mortgage rates could U-turn lower before too long. And here’s to hoping they’re right.

Lowest nationally available mortgage rates

1-year fixed5.74%Ratehub5.69%QuestMortgage
2-year fixed5.64%Ratehub5.44%QuestMortgage
3-year fixed5.24%Investors Group4.99%Radius Financial
4-year fixed5.19%Investors Group4.84%Ratehub
5-year fixed5.14%QuestMortgage4.59%Nesto
10-year fixed5.94%HSBC5.34%Nesto
Variable6.10%HSBC5.50%True North
5-year hybrid5.65%HSBC6.06%Scotia eHOME

Source: Robert McLister; data as of Mar. 2

* Home equity line of credit

Rates are as of March 2, 2023, from providers that advertise rates online and lend in at least nine provinces. Insured rates apply to those buying with less than a 20 per cent down payment, or those switching a pre-existing insured mortgage to a new lender. Uninsured rates apply to refinances and purchases over $1-million and may include applicable lender rate premiums. For providers whose rates vary by province, their highest rate is shown.

Robert McLister is an interest rate analyst, mortgage strategist and editor of You can follow him on Twitter at @RobMcLister.