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A look at the lowest available mortgage rates on fixed and variable terms and HELOCs this weekMatt Rourke/The Associated Press

The latest pop in rates could (slightly) cool the market

In the past few weeks, the lowest nationally-available fixed mortgage rates have shot up by 20 to 35 basis points. If the Bank of Canada scares the market into thinking it’ll get more aggressive with rate hikes, yields – and fixed rates – could climb a bit further. (A basis point is 1/100th of a percentage point.)

The moment of truth comes next Wednesday at 10 a.m. ET. That’s when the central bank releases its next policy statement. There’s a one-in-three chance it’ll hike again, according to rates implied by the bond market.

McLister: The bond market anticipates it all. The only unknown is when

For now, the lowest fixed-rate offers are still below 5 per cent. That’s not insignificant from a market psychology standpoint. Some borrowers simply don’t want to pay a mortgage rate above that threshold or can’t pass the government’s mortgage stress test with rates that high.

Therefore, even this recent little mortgage rate spurt may be enough to slow the home price rebound we’ve seen since January.

Meanwhile, for all you value shoppers out there, don’t forget about regional lenders and brokers. They have some of the sexiest deals going. Here are a handful of examples for default-insured borrowers who still prefer five-year fixed rates:

  • 4.34 per cent at Affinity Credit Union in Manitoba
  • 4.34 per cent at Conexus Credit Union in Saskatchewan
  • 4.39 per cent at ATB Financial in Alberta
  • 4.49 per cent at Meridian Credit Union in Ontario
  • 4.49 per cent at Vancity Credit Union in British Columbia

A few of these lenders also offer up to $4,000 cash back, so ask for a rebate where applicable. Just note that borrowers who break their mortgage early must typically repay part or all of any lender rebates.

Rates are as of June 1, 2023, from providers that advertise rates online and lend in at least nine provinces. Insured rates apply to those buying with less than a 20 per cent down payment, or those switching a pre-existing insured mortgage to a new lender. Uninsured rates apply to refinances and purchases over $1-million and may include applicable lender rate premiums. For providers whose rates vary by province, their highest rate is shown.

Robert McLister is an interest rate analyst, mortgage strategist and editor of You can follow him on Twitter at @RobMcLister.

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