The B.C. NDP holds a nine-point lead over the B.C. Liberals as voters head to the polls, according to a new Angus Reid survey conducted exclusively for CTV and The Globe and Mail.
The online poll surveyed 800 voters over the weekend, with the results released on Monday.
"I think what it shows more than anything is that there were a lot of people who made up their minds on how they were going to vote before this [the campaign] ultimately began," said Mario Canseco, the vice-president of Angus Reid Public Opinion, noting that the difference between the two parties was the same as it was in a poll released last Friday.
Of the voters surveyed, 45 per cent said they intend to vote for an NDP candidate, while 36 per cent said they will vote for a Liberal. Nine per cent said they would vote for the Green Party candidate, while seven per cent said they would vote Conservative.
The first Angus Reid poll of the campaign had the Liberals trailing the NDP by 17 per cent. In early May, the Liberals narrowed it to within seven percentage points, only to see the NDP push their lead up again.
Mr. Canseco said the Liberals' inability to retain voters who supported them in the last election has been the biggest factor plaguing the party. The latest poll shows that only 67 per cent of people who voted Liberal in 2009 plan to do so on Tuesday. The same poll shows that the NDP has retained 83 per cent of its voters.
"A third of their base is gone," Mr. Canseco said of the Liberals. "This [weekend] was the chance they had to reconnect with the base. If there was an opportunity to connect, this was the moment to do so. … But there was probably too much baggage to deal with."
Mr. Canseco said he believes the Liberals have only a "very slim" chance of pulling off an upset.
"But it's understandable to see the party saying that it is closer than it is, that 'the polls don't matter,'" he said. "You don't want to say this a foregone conclusion to your voters the day before the election."