Confidence votes to keep BC NDP on edge of its seats, expert says

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If British Columbia's New Democrats form a minority government, its survival will depend on winning confidence votes that happen automatically up to four times a year in the legislature.

But there could be more and, with a government that has a razor-thin majority of one seat, B.C.'s MLAs will find themselves on edge, with less freedom to vote the way they choose and worried that circumstances might prevent them from getting to their seat for even routine matters.

By convention, the Throne Speech, its amendments and two budget-related bills are always treated as explicit tests of whether a party deserves to govern the province. And Parliamentary tradition requires the speaker to vote to sustain the government, which would allow the New Democrats to survive throne speeches and budgets by a one-vote margin.

Still, a government can declare any bill a confidence matter if it wants to enforce party discipline or call a snap election in which it believes it could win more seats. And if the NDP were to lose a vote on a policy central to its campaign platform, by convention that also amounts to a loss of confidence, said Hamish Telford, a political science professor at the University of the Fraser Valley.

"Our democracy rests on these conventions, and every time we toss one out the window, we're weakening our democracy," he said.

The Liberal minority government is expected to fall as early as Thursday, and New Democrat Leader John Horgan said last week that his party – with the support of the Greens – could gain power and recall the legislature as early as September.

In recent days, Premier Christy Clark has repeatedly told reporters: "British Columbians don't want [another] election."

However, the New Democrats say, her party's actions over the past week – repeatedly calling the NDP-Green alliance unstable and asking the current Liberal Speaker to provide last-minute "guidance" on how an NDP minority legislature would function – are a concerted effort to influence the Lieutenant-Governor to call an election without advising her to do so.

If the New Democrats are asked to form a government, they could use confidence votes early on in their mandate to draw co-operation from the 43 Liberal MLAs, knowing they are reluctant to be seen as foisting another election on B.C.'s weary voters, Prof. Telford said.

"The NDP could say to the Liberals, 'You can vote against Bill A, but if you vote against Bill B, it's going to force an election. Do you want to be responsible for doing that?'" he said.

As well, the less-experienced Greens could topple the government if one of their MLAs misses a crucial vote on a money bill – a proposed law that makes substantial changes to the provincial budget and is historically considered a confidence matter.

"I was looking at the NDP-Green agreement yesterday and the provisions around bills that were matters of confidence were problematic and vague," Prof. Telford said last week.

Last Wednesday, Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver told reporters that, under the agreement, only the Throne Speech and the provincial budget would be matters of confidence.

Some governments have deliberately moved and lost confidence motions in an effort to force an election and gamble on better returns: Former Social Credit premier W.A.C. Bennett deliberately lost a confidence motion just nine months after forming government in 1952, and his party – a political precursor to the current "free-enterprise coalition" headed by the BC Liberals – won a majority in the next election.

Another way the NDP could lose government, Prof. Telford said, would be if the Liberals decide to abandon the historical practice of "pairing," whereby an MLA will sit out a vote to maintain the balance of power if a rival politician cannot make it to the legislature because of sickness or an emergency such as a missed flight.

"That's just a handshake understanding," he said.

The federal Liberal Party ditched this convention almost a decade ago in an attempt to topple the government of Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper.

"The Liberals said, 'We're not doing pairing any more, we're going for your throat,' and brought them down," Prof. Telford said.

Mr. Harper fended off the challenge by proroguing Parliament.

Peter Milliken, the Liberal MP who was Speaker during that time, said most of the five times he stepped in to break a tie on a confidence vote came as a surprise. A B.C. NDP government would be in a precarious situation because the absence of any of its MLAs could affect its ability to pass bills central to the party's platform, he said in an interview.

"You don't know who's going to be there and who's not," he said. "Sometimes these pacts fall apart, which can affect the overall situation in a significant way."