Beaches East-York
Main card: Maria Minna (Liberal) vs. Marilyn Churley (NDP).
Last round: 22,494 (Liberal), 15,156 (NDP).
The East Toronto NDP machine that mobilized in 2004 to help Mr. Layton defeat Liberal Dennis Mills in Toronto-Danforth has shifted over one riding. The incumbent, Ms. Minna, has held the job since 1993, but Ms. Churley is a more high-profile candidate who has served for years in the Ontario Legislature and held cabinet posts during Bob Rae's term as premier. Meanwhile, Ms. Minna, a Jean Chrétien loyalist, has seen her star fade since 2002, when she lost her post as the cabinet minister in charge of the Canadian International Development Agency.
St. Paul's
Main card: Carolyn Bennett (Liberal) vs. Peter Kent (Conservative) vs. Paul Summerville (NDP).
Last round: 32,171 (Liberal), 11,226 (Conservative), 8,667 (NDP).
This mid-town riding, which includes tony Forest Hill and arty St. Clair West, is known for two things: Canada's highest concentration of university-educated voters, and constituents who know which way the political winds are blowing. The incumbent, Liberal Ms. Bennett, is the minister of public health, a post created in the wake of the SARS crisis and tailor-made to her professional credentials as a family physician. She's squaring off against two star candidates: veteran CanWest Global TV broadcaster Mr. Kent and bank economist Mr. Summerville. Both are adroit communicators with loads of media experience, while Dr. Bennett could be dogged by her rambling speaking style. Mr. Kent is banking on name recognition, while Mr. Summerville will emphasize his banking roots and play down his party affiliation. (His website colours: shades of blue.)
Trinity-Spadina
Main card: Tony Ianno (Liberal) vs. Olivia Chow (NDP).
Last round: 23,202 (Liberal), 22,397 (NDP).
The third round of a heavyweight battle. In 2004, Mr. Ianno succeeded in pulling more votes from lakeshore condo residents, while Ms. Chow saw the Green Party siphon almost 2,300 votes. Mr. Ianno, a tough-talking Martin loyalist, was able to tout his advocacy of seniors' issues and has since served as minister of state for families -- a position that allows him to dole out grants to community groups. But the riding's big issue remains the status of the island airport. The Toronto Port Authority continues to press ahead with plans to build a modern ferry to the moribund facility as a means of kick-starting air service. Anti-airport activists have targeted Mr. Ianno for failing to rein in the federally regulated agency.
Newmarket-Aurora
Main card: Belinda Stronach (Liberal) vs. Lois Brown (Conservative).
Last round: 21,818 (Conservative), 21,129 (Liberal).
The populous 905 riding was the scene of this minority government's most riveting soap opera when novice Conservative MP and auto-parts heiress Ms. Stronach crossed the floor, thwarting both a non-confidence vote and her caucus beau Peter McKay. Ms. Stronach, now a high-profile Liberal cabinet minister, won the 2004 race by a hair. The question now is whether she will be punished by local Conservatives who feel jilted by her defection. Liberal organizers are counting on the Stronach name and the family's extensive corporate and community ties in Aurora. Ms. Brown, the Conservative candidate, is a long-time party activist considered to be a staunch social conservative. Her website features a gushing testimonial from Mr. McKay.
Oshawa
Main card: Colin Carrie (Conservative) vs. Sid Ryan (NDP) vs. Louise Parkes (Liberal).
Last round: 15,815 (Conservative), 15,352 (NDP), 14510 (Liberal).
The big issue: the looming layoffs of 3,000 autoworkers at the General Motors plant. Yesterday, NDP Leader Jack Layton and Ed Broadbent, who held the seat in the 1970s and 1980s, swept into town to announce that the price of the party's participation in any future minority government is a new auto sector strategy, which would include subsidies and a domestic content policy. But the party's gambit to replace the Canada-U.S. Auto Pact -- overturned five years ago -- is hardly a home run. The riding drifted right during the economic uncertainty of the early 1990s. The layoffs "will hurt the Liberals," predicts Peter Van Loan, one of three Conservative MPs elected in the GTA in 2004. The Conservatives intend to stress the recent loss of tens of thousands of such manufacturing jobs as an indictment of the Liberals' record on productivity and corporate taxes.
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Main card: Michael Ignatieff (Liberal) vs. John Capobianco (Conservative).
Last round: 24,909 (Liberal), 15,159 (Conservative).
This south Etobicoke riding -- which includes Mimico, New Toronto and the new condo towers at the foot of the Humber -- has quickly become an election hot spot. Having so far weathered upset factions in the local Liberal organization and the Ukrainian community, star candidate Mr. Ignatieff's victory is by no means assured. "Just having someone other than [retiring incumbent]Jean Augustine boosts our chances," says Mr. Van Loan. Mr. Capobianco lost to Ms. Augustine in 2004, but he has lots of political organizing experience, having worked for cabinet ministers under Mike Harris and as one of the driving forces behind the early unite-the-right movement that eventually led to the creation of the Canadian Alliance. Voters in this and other so-called "inner suburban" ridings may also be receptive to the Conservatives' promise to get tough on gangs and gun-toting drug dealers.
Scarborough-Guildwood
Main card: John McKay (Liberal) vs. Pauline Browes (Conservative).
Last round: 20,950 (Liberal), 8,277 (Conservative).
This large riding, which stretches from the affluent neighbourhoods atop the Scarborough Bluffs up to Highway 401, is held by Mr. McKay, one of the original clutch of Martin loyalists. He has done little to distinguish himself; his most notable moment in the past year was joining 31 other Liberal MPs in voting against the same-sex marriage bill. Moreover, Mr. McKay is facing a formidable opponent: former Brian Mulroney cabinet minister Ms. Browes. She represented Scarborough Centre between 1984 and 1993, and is well known locally for having pushed hard to establish Rouge Park at a time when the city and the province were eyeing the valley as a potential dump site.
Whitby-Oshawa
Main card: Judi Longfield (Liberal) vs. Jim Flaherty (Conservative).
Last round: 25,649 (Liberal), 20,531 (Conservative).
Perhaps the Conservatives' single best shot at knocking off a Liberal MP in the 905 band. Grit incumbent Ms. Longfield held on to beat Conservative candidate Ian MacNeil in 2004. But this time she faces former Ontario finance minister Jim Flaherty, who may be an even more formidable challenger. He has name recognition, extensive experience in government and loads of local presence. Two other seats in the eastern GTA -- Durham and Oshawa -- were taken by the Conservatives in the last election.
Davenport
Main card: Mario Silva (Liberal) vs. Gord Perks (NDP).
Last round: 16,773 (Liberal), 11,292 (NDP).
NDP strategists believe the evolving demographics of this inner-city west-end riding -- with its large concentration of working-class families, immigrants and gentrifying neighbourhoods -- favours the party's bid to appeal to disaffected soft Liberals. But outspoken environmental activist Mr. Perks has his work cut out for him: Incumbent Mr. Silva, a former city councillor, wrested the nomination away from Trudeau-era stalwart Charles Caccia last year en route to becoming the first Portuguese-Canadian elected to the House of Commons. As one NDP organizer says, "He doesn't cut much of a swath outside that riding, but he's tough to beat -- he is a very effective campaigner."
Halton/Oakville/Burlington
Main cards: Halton -- Gary Carr (Liberal) vs. Garth Turner (Conservative); Oakville -- Bonnie Brown (Liberal) vs. Terence Young (Conservative); Burlington -- Paddy Torsney (Liberal) vs. Mike Wallace (Conservative).
Last round: Halton -- 27,362 (Liberal), 21,704 (Conservative); Oakville -- 28,729 (Liberal), 19,524 (Conservative); Burlington -- 27,423 (Liberal), 23,389 (Conservative).
This bank of western GTA ridings represents a potential sweet spot for the Conservatives, and the party plans to throw serious resources into these campaigns. The Conservative challengers: financial advice guru and former Mulroney cabinet minister Mr. Turner, popular city councillor Mr. Wallace and former Tory MPP Mr. Young. Mr. Young has become an outspoken advocate of improved federal drug testing policies since his daughter died from ingesting a common heartburn medication. He sued the manufacturer and Health Canada, and testified at a coroner's inquest that the federal agency failed to properly warn patients about potential side effects. As it happens, long-time Burlington Liberal MP Mr. Torsney, elected in 1988, has also established something of a broader profile as a consumer advocate, having pushed for legislation to curb telemarketing.