Tim Flannery has compellingly argued that global-warming deniers now belong in the ranks of eccentrics and cranks. In his admirable book The Weather Makers, the Australian palaeontologist issues a challenge that can be squarely directed at Canadians: Are we part of the solution to climate change?
From this Albertan, the answer is an emphatic yes. In fact, my province is ready to pioneer one of the most promising solutions Mr. Flannery identifies: large-scale capture and sequestration of carbon dioxide emissions.
The need for it is pressing. Hundreds of new coal-fired power plants are planned to meet the surging energy needs of China and India. Uncontrolled emissions from these imperil the planet.
Mr. Flannery is pessimistic in his book about the prospects of carbon capture and storage, noting it is hugely expensive and requires massive investments by the private sector as well as by government, and thus unlikely to happen any time soon.
Yet in Alberta, it is already happening.
Last October, my firm sounded Albertans on the subjects that animate them. We used conjoint analysis to get a clear idea of the depth of citizens' attachment to the matters they considered most important. Environment clearly emerged as the Number One concern in Albertans' minds. Indeed our analysis suggested that environmental sustainability is not merely an issue. It has become a core value like democracy, freedom of speech and the rule of law.
There is little doubt that economic prosperity goes hand in hand with environmental sustainability. Influential Albertans see climate change as a business opportunity. Large energy companies are willing to invest in carbon capture and the clean energy economy - as long as government takes the lead in setting out the rules. In the absence of government policy leadership, what profit-minded market-based enterprise would be the first to undertake the risk in developing the means to slash greenhouse gas emissions, if its competitors are not required to follow suit?
Carbon capture is one such technology. We know that in Alberta, it will cost up to $6-billion to build a capture and distribution network for CO2 sequestration. This would enable the capture of CO2 from coal- and gas-fired power plants, oil sands plants, and other heavy emitters, and inject it into aging conventional oil fields. As a result, oil that was not accessible by the old technology will be produced and the CO2 will replace the displaced oil. The initial price tag seems large, but it must be put in the perspective of the $100 billion being invested in developing oil sands extraction.
In this context, Prime Minister Stephen Harper's announcement of a $150 million federal contribution to a CO2 capture network is a modest catalyst. Yet Alberta intends to use it towards its own initial plans for a $1.5 billion CO2 pipeline, and Premier Ed Stelmach notes that a proper pipeline network could cost between $5 billion and $6 billion
Oil sands should be considered as more than a petroleum source. This is the largest deposit of hydrocarbons on the planet. The oil sands could be the transition between the petroleum economy of today and the hydrogen economy of tomorrow. Bitumen coke, a by-product of oil sands production, is a low-cost source of hydrogen.
Hydrogen and synthetic natural gas can also be produced from Alberta's vast coal deposits - a huge plant is being built to do just that. At the end of 2008, Honda is going to introduce a commercially-available hydrogen car. Initial plans are to install home converters that will extract hydrogen from natural gas, and fuel the car for up to a 500-km range. The emission that comes out of hydrogen combustion is water. Almost all Alberta homes are heated by natural gas and that would facilitate a conversion to a hydrogen car.
The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers seeks a clear set of regulated standards for the energy industry. The leaders among them know it will take hundreds of millions of dollars in research and development in emerging technologies to slash greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon capture is the most promising of the proven technologies. They will invest the money, if everyone has to play by the same rules and achieve the same goals.
Given the scenario Tim Flannery so ably sketches, the real opportunity for Alberta and Canada is to sell carbon capture and clean coal technology to China and India before they embark on a huge expansion of coal-fuelled power generation.
Alberta is ready to embrace the economic growth inherent in environmental stewardship. Albertans want a meaningful response to global warming, and they will reward politicians who actually dare to lead.
Satya Das is co-founder and principal of Cambridge Strategies Inc., an Edmonton-based consultancy.