André Pratte on the rise of the NDP in Quebec

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Do not mistake Quebeckers' sudden attraction to the NDP for a radical change in the way they see Canada and their place in it, André Pratte wrote in Saturday's Globe and Mail.

The rise in popularity of the federal NDP in Quebec - the party won almost 60 of the province's 75 seats in Monday's federal election, compared to only a handful each for the Conservatives, Liberals and Bloc Québécois - doesn't mean that the desire for sovereignty has disappeared.

Even before the extent of the sweep was known, journalists and political scientists had already started to reflect on the meaning of the apparent sea change in Quebeckers' federal voting preferences, he wrote.

Now that the long-invincible Bloc Québécois has fallen from its pedestal, will the hydra of separatism be mortally wounded? Will Quebec at last become a less turbulent and exacting member of the federation?

Mr. Pratte says the answer to both questions is an emphatic "no."

Mr. Pratte joined the Globe for a live discussion on the subject Tuesday afternoon. Below is an edited transcript of that discussion.

Ann Hui: Hi everyone. I'm an online editor at globeandmail.com and I'll be moderating today's live discussion. Joining us soon will be La Presse editorial writer André Pratte, who will take reader questions on the rise of the NDP in Quebec.

The chat will begin soon, but in the meantime, feel free to leave your questions for André.

Let's jump right into the first question. André, in Saturday's Globe and Mail, you argued that "whatever happens to the Bloc, the provincial Parti Québécois will remain a powerful political force." After seeing last night's results, do you still feel the same way?

[Comment From Andre Pratte Andre Pratte: ]I'm ready to start.

[Comment From André Pratte André Pratte: ]/b>

Absolutely. Polls show that support for separation is still around 40%. And the PQ would be elected if a provincial election was held today. Quebecers decided yesterday to put the separation issue on the backburner as far as federal politics are concerned. It doesn't necessarily transfer to provincial politics.

Ann Hui: Click here, by the way, for full election results, including a breakdown by province.

Ann Hui: You wrote that a weakened Bloc and a triumphant NDP in Quebec could help "launch a dialogue between the province and the rest of Canada."

Can you elaborate on that?

André Pratte: By massively rejecting the Bloc, Quebecers have chosen to come back to a national (pan-Canadian) party. They are now, apparently, willing to be part of the public debate on issues that concern all Canadians. This presents the whole country with an opportunity to begin a new dialogue between ourselves, a dialogue that the Bloc domination had rendered difficult, if not impossible. That doesn't mean Quebecers are less nationalist than before. But they have chosen to express who they are and their view of Canada through national parties rather than a separatist one.

Ann Hui: Here's a reader question:

[Comment From Benoit Benoit: ]So Quebec voters said "enough" we want back in the (federal) BBQ, how do you see the NDP defending the interest of Québec whithin a national party for the first time in a while - not that the Bloc is ...dead. thanks

André Pratte: To me, the key here is to understand what asymmetrical federalism is. Ugly word, but essential, as the NDP has understood with the help of Thomas Mulcair. Quebecers share the same preoccupations as other Canadians. But, for historical and cultural reasons, they sometimes don't chose the same solutions, or would rather have their provincial goverement deal with the problem rather than the federal government. That does not change any thing for the other provinces, and in fact they can also use this same autonomy. As long as this does not prevent all Canadians from receiving an equivalent service, there is no problem in that. It it typical federalism, period. That's the view of the NDP, I understand, and they will therefore be able both to advance their social agenda and defend «Quebec's interests».

André Pratte: Sorry Benoit, a long and complicated answer...

[Comment From Keith Pedersen Keith Pedersen: ]As an expat Canadian raised in Alberta but living in San Diego, I have sent my two sons to a French Immersion public school as a way of connecting them to their Canadian heritage. I have taken them to Ontario and Quebec (Montreal, Quebec City, Beaupre) so they know more of this country than my western roots. What will it take to help Quebecois feel they are better off in Canada than out, and that they are as much a part of Canada as anyone else, especially now that they have no major representation in the government?

André Pratte: Since Quebecers have twice rejected separation and have now tossed out the Bloc, I guess you could say that in fact, they do feel part of Canada. However, it is asking too much to ask that they share the same level of enthusiasm for Canada than other Canadians. There first sentiment is for Quebec; it's been like that for ever, even in Laurier's days. M. Ignatieff understood it well: we live in a world of multiple identities. Some may feel Newfoundlanders first, Canadian second. Others muslim first, Canadian second. There is nothing wrong in Quebecers feeling Quebecers first and Canadian second. However, French speaking Quebecers have felt at times rejected by the rest of the country and, even though it's not a constant preoccupation, the injury is still there and some days hurts more than others.

[Comment From Ryan Ryan: ]How do you see the Conservative government's relationship with Quebec?

André Pratte: It all depends how Mr Harper deals with the issue. He has to keep in mind that the PQ could be elected in a couple of years with a plan to provoke a crisis with Ottawa.For the federal gvt to resist that plan, it will need to have a strong Québec voice and a good feel of what's happening in the province. Unfortunately, Qc elected only 6 MP's, only a few cabinet material. Those 6 MP's will not carry much weight in the 167 strong tory caucus. So Mr Harper will have to find ways to compensate, while being fair to other regions who have elected Conservatives. He could achieve this by getting more people from Québec in his entourage. He could recruit a big Québec name and have him or her elected in a by-election. None of this will be simple. But it is necessary if the present opportunity to bring Québec back into the fold is not to be lost.

Ann Hui: Speaking of individual Quebec MPs, here's an interesting reader question:

[Comment From CanuckAbroad CanuckAbroad: ]Now that the dust has settled, it seems like newly-elected NDP MPs in Quebec are getting the scrutiny they probably should have received during the campaign -- do you have concerns about these (in some cases, considerably) inexperienced MPs?

Ann Hui: And a link to the Globe story that gives some background on some of these MPs.

André Pratte: Yes. THere are some who do not speak French but were elected by 100% francophone ridings! A few university students, also. But others have interesting backgrounds, and all of these will be under the control of Thomas Mulcair, a tough and brillant politician. We might discover a few pearls. Don't forget that many of the Bloc backbenchers were also unknowns. However, there is a danger that an inexperienced Quebec caucus is fast seen as incompetent and loses the voters confidence. That happened provincially with the ADQ, when it became the Official opposition to Charest's minority government in 2007 and was practically wiped out a year later.

[Comment From Mark Mark: ]Despite being the official opposition, the NDP stands to have little actual influence on policy in the near future. What do you think they will need to deliver to Quebecers to avoid having this be a one election blip?

André Pratte: A good, strong opposition can have some influence by winning public opinion on its side. The NDP has to be seen as defending Quebec's interests in an intelligent fashion and grow to become a credible alternative to the Conservative government. Who knows, 4 years from now, Quebecers might vote NDP again, but this time in the hope that the party will form the national government.

[Comment From AnDu AnDu: ]What do you think will happen to Gilles Duceppe? Will he seek to work in provincial politics, now that he has resigned from the federal party?

André Pratte: I think Mr Duceppe's political career is over. He has been 20 years in federal politics. The only job that could interest him is leader of the PQ. But Mrs Marois has just gotten 93% support from the party and is sure to lead the PQ in the next provincial campaign, 2 years from now.

Ann Hui: Here's a link to a Globe story about Mr. Duceppe's resignation last night.

[Comment From Shawn Goldwater Shawn Goldwater: ]What would it take for the Liberals to regain some measure of popularity in francophone Quebec? Or has their constitutional stance, past scandals and perceived link to the PLQ doomed them, in your view?

André Pratte: It seems that the Liberal brand has been damaged in Quebec. It's not the constitutional thing, really, since Mr Chrétien did pretty well when he was leader. The sponsorship scandal hurt a lot. The party has failed to bring in new big names from Quebec. It might also suffer from the provincial liberals' problems: Mr Charest's government is extremely unpopular.

Ann Hui: Two questions, related to the same point:

[Comment From Daniel Daniel: ]A lot has been written regarding the "social values" of Quebeckers and their alignment, on that basis, with the NDP. Is that accurate? Isn't this the province that almost elected an Adequiste provincial government several years ago?

[Comment From Kurt Kurt: ]Do you see the Progressive vision of the NDP as something that might mesh well with the traditional Progressive vision of the average Quebeccer?

André Pratte: Quebec is not ideologically uniform. The Bloc has tried to paint Quebec and the ROC as fundamentally and permanently different. Yesterday's results show that in fact, many Quebecers share the center-left values that many English Canadians entertain. Also, there is a good number of conservative (in the philosophical sense) Quebecers.

[Comment From David David: ]M. Pratte. How much of the NDP surge can be attributed to the hard line on language and the promotion of sovereignty taken by the Parti Quebecois at its recent convention? The NDP surge seemed to begin right after that convention where the PQ took positions that seem to be outside the current Quebec consensus on language and the aversion of many voters to make sovereignty the main consideration of a PQ government.

André Pratte: It seems to me that Quebecers are looking for a way out of the existential debate on their political future and at the same time want to get rid of the generation of politicians that sprang from the Révolution tranquille. Their search for a 3rd way produced both the ADQ phenomenon and yesterday's results.

André Pratte: In fact, it seems the NDP surge began earlier. That would explain why Mr Duceppe used the PQ convention to whip up separatist support, at the risk of alienating voters who have had enough of that debate (for now...). How yesterday's results translate in provincial politics is far from evident. Remember that Quebecers are famous for not putting all their eggs in the same basket. They elected both René Lévesque and Pierre Trudeau in the same time period!

Ann Hui: And a question from me:

At the time you wrote your piece in Saturday's Globe, polls were showing that the Bloc could still win almost a half of Quebec's seats. Did last night's results (the NDP taking 58 seats and the Bloc only 4 out of a possible 75) surprise you?

André Pratte: I was flabbergasted. Polls showed the NDP with important gains, but I expected that seeing those polls, Quebecers would drift back to the BQ in some numbers. Many of the ridings won by the NDP were Bloc strongholds. Imagine: G. Duceppe defeated in his own riding! No one could foresee that.

[Comment From Albin Albin: ]I recall Quebec as a Liberal stronghold, then going strongly Tory under Mulroney's Bouchard invention, then to the Bloc, and now to Layton. Is Quebec a fickle mistress?

André Pratte: Laurier famously said: Quebec has no opinions, only emotions. Quebecers have been quite faithful to the Bloc, and to the Liberals. But after 20 years, or in the case of the liberals, decades, they get tired and they go for the younger girl. Sound familiar?

Ann Hui: An interesting question from reader Jonathan:

[Comment From Jonathan Jonathan: ]/b> Isnt it that the NPD win a rejection not of BQ but of Harper

Ann Hui: (By the way, a follow-up from Albin):

[Comment From Albin Albin: ]Let me say I love Quebec, fickle or not.

André Pratte: Both. If Quebecers had wanted simply to express their disappointment with Harper, they would have voted Bloc again; G. Duceppe insisted during the campaign that the Bloc was the only party able to stop the Conservatives from getting a majority. So I think voters wanted to reject both the Tories AND the Bloc.

Ann Hui: We're running out of time, so this next one will be the last question:

[Comment From Gary Gary: ]With Quebec voting overwhelmingly to remove the Bloc from power do you see this as a clear message from the individual on the streets that they want to feel, act and be seen as Canadians and that the seperation issues are only backed by the political parties and the media following?

André Pratte: @Albin: Yes, Québec is a difficult partner. But isn't that part of its charm? Part of what Canada is, although sometimes very frustrating?

André Pratte: @Gary: No, I think you're putting too much meaning in these results. Most Quebecers feel less Canadian today than 20 years ago, polls show. That is the result of the failure of the Meech Accord. Their Canadian-ness is less emotional, more rational. And so what? As long as Quebecers are willing to participate in good faith to the evolution of our country, who needs patriotism meters?

Ann Hui: And that concludes today's discussion.

Thanks very much to everyone who participated, and a special thanks to André for his thoughtful answers. For more in-depth coverage of election results, click here.

André Pratte: Let's do this again. I appreciate the chance to discuss with people from all regions of our great country.