Skip to main content

Economy

Three bleak charts that tell Canada's fiscal and economic story

Read full coverage of Monday's fiscal announcement



The swelling deficit

The federal Liberals now project Canada's deficit will swell to $18.4-billion in the 2016-17 fiscal year amid a starkly weaker outlook for the economy. That doesn't include their campaign pledges for stimulus spending.

The weakening economy

Ottawa's new economic forecasts are those of private economists, who have been scrambling to cut their outlook. The government's call is now for growth of 1.4 per cent this year, compared with the earlier projection of 2 per cent. Some economists, however, warn growth in gross domestic product this year could be 1 per cent or less.

Story continues below advertisement

The oil shock

Much has to do with the collapse of oil prices, of course, and the projections are bleaker there, too. The government has cut its projection for the U.S. benchmark to $40 a barrel (U.S.), above where it stands now but down from earlier predictions. Added to that are forecasts that unemployment will average an elevated 6.8 per cent this year.

What analysts say

"Since that base case has deteriorated by a total of $21-billion, keeping the planned stimulus in place would now mean a deficit of roughly $30-billion. That's still only 1.5 per cent, hardly a blow-up. The only question is whether the modest dose of stimulus pledged in the campaign (roughly a half-percent of GDP) is enough to counter the drag on the economy from low commodity prices." Avery Shenfeld, chief economist, CIBC World Markets.

Report an error Editorial code of conduct
Comments

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff. Non-subscribers can read and sort comments but will not be able to engage with them in any way. Click here to subscribe.

If you would like to write a letter to the editor, please forward it to letters@globeandmail.com. Readers can also interact with The Globe on Facebook and Twitter .

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff. Non-subscribers can read and sort comments but will not be able to engage with them in any way. Click here to subscribe.

If you would like to write a letter to the editor, please forward it to letters@globeandmail.com. Readers can also interact with The Globe on Facebook and Twitter .

Welcome to The Globe and Mail’s comment community. This is a space where subscribers can engage with each other and Globe staff.

We aim to create a safe and valuable space for discussion and debate. That means:

  • Treat others as you wish to be treated
  • Criticize ideas, not people
  • Stay on topic
  • Avoid the use of toxic and offensive language
  • Flag bad behaviour

Comments that violate our community guidelines will be removed.

If your comment doesn't appear immediately it has been sent to a member of our moderation team for review

Read our community guidelines here

Discussion loading ...

Due to technical reasons, we have temporarily removed commenting from our articles. We hope to have this fixed soon. Thank you for your patience. If you are looking to give feedback on our new site, please send it along to feedback@globeandmail.com. If you want to write a letter to the editor, please forward to letters@globeandmail.com.