Conservative Party leadership candidate Maxime Bernier addresses the crowd at a televised debate in Toronto on April 26, 2017.FRED THORNHILL/Reuters
A common refrain from Conservative partisans, once the tape recorder is put away, is that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is unbeatable in 2019, and so whoever wins the party leadership next month will be a caretaker, holding things together until 2023, when the Liberals will be more vulnerable and the Conservatives might have a different, more electable, leader.
This seems odd.
Like the stock market, the political market is unpredictable. Unforeseen events can change things in an instant. Beyond that, the Conservative Party of Canada is remarkably healthy, apart from a bad case of political hypochondria.
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If Conservatives elect a caretaker leader, they will get their death-wish. But if they choose someone able to forge a true government-in-waiting, then anything is possible. Consider:
Conservatives approached the 1972 election prepared to lose. Pierre Trudeau had won a huge victory in 1968 and earned praise for his stern leadership during the FLQ crisis. But a weak economy and a mismanaged Liberal campaign – "The Land is Strong" may have been the worst slogan ever – brought Conservative leader Robert Stanfield to within two seats of victory. Campaigns matter.
In 2012, it was the Liberals' turn to despair. Pundits Paul Adams and Warren Kinsella published books urging the Liberals and NDP to merge, which they saw as the only hope for progressives seeking to unseat Stephen Harper's Conservatives.
Pollster Darrell Bricker and I wrote a book that spoke of a coalition of Western conservatives and suburban immigrant voters in Ontario that could make the Conservatives the new natural governing party. Then Justin Trudeau reversed himself and decided to run for the Liberal leadership after all. Leaders matter.
The Conservatives today are in decent organizational shape. Fundraising remains robust. This leadership campaign has swelled the party's ranks to just less than 260,000 members. Infrastructure matters.
And Mr. Trudeau's Liberal government confronts a rogue American President who is threatening to withdraw the United States from the North American free-trade agreement unless Canada and Mexico meet his terms, whatever those might be. Failure on the government's part to protect Canada's interests could damage the economy and with it, Liberal prospects. Events matter.
If it turns out that the Liberals are vulnerable in 2019, then which Conservative leader and set of policies stand the best chance of defeating them? After all, the winning coalition of suburban immigrant Ontario voters and traditional Tory voters that Mr. Bricker and I wrote about remains available. Which leader could put that coalition back together?
Beauce MP Maxime Bernier, the presumed frontrunner, promises to strengthen the party in Quebec, his home province. His libertarian platform proposes a flattened income-tax, lower corporate taxes, less equalization, little or no federal involvement in health care, and an eviscerated CBC and CRTC. How much of that platform would make it into an election manifesto is a matter of speculation.
Durham MP Erin O'Toole offers a competent, calm demeanour, improved chances in the all-important ex-urban Toronto ridings – he represents one of those ridings – and a platform that mixes increased defence spending with financial support for young people entering the work force.
Regina-Qu'Appelle MP Andrew Scheer brings management experience to the table – as House Speaker, he oversaw the administration of the House of Commons – along with a dose of social conservatism. He proposes tax deductions for parents who send their children to private schools, and to cut government funding to "public universities or colleges that do not foster a culture of free speech and inquiry on campus."
These and other candidates offer distinct and sometimes competing values and policies. Simcoe-Grey MP Kellie Leitch would toughen immigration requirements. Former immigration minister Chris Alexander would increase the immigration intake. Wellington-Halton Hills MP Michael Chong supports a carbon tax. Is one of them better-suited to confronting Mr. Trudeau's sunny ways?
That is for the members to decide. But they should look for a winner, not a caretaker. Caretakers clean up messes. There is no mess.
John Ibbitson