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The pressure will be on Thomas Mulcair Thursday evening. And whether he is able to rise to the occasion could determine if the federal election campaign remains a three-way tie, or the logjam is finally broken.

Heading into the first of two French-language leaders' debates, the dominance of the New Democrats in Quebec is the only thing keeping them roughly even with Stephen Harper's Conservatives and Justin Trudeau's Liberals in national polls. But while the Orange Wave seemingly picked up where it left off in 2011, with the NDP's huge lead in the province holding steady through the campaign to date, it's unclear just how solid that advantage really is.

A new Léger poll shows some erosion of Quebec support. A bigger concern for the NDP is that the province's notoriously volatile electorate is just starting to pay close attention, and one of the first things voters will see is every other leader on the offensive against Mr. Mulcair – including Mr. Trudeau, who is trying to build on his recent success in presenting himself as a more effective change agent.

The most aggressive participant in the two English-language debates to date, the Liberal Leader can be expected to again accuse Mr. Mulcair of not offering enough policy difference from Mr. Harper, who is deeply unpopular with most Quebeckers. Mr. Harper, whose Tories are hoping to take a few seats from the NDP around Quebec City, might take a few shots of his own. But it is Gilles Duceppe, trying to bring his Bloc Québécois back from the dead and with almost nothing to lose, who offers New Democrats the most cause for concern.

Among other attacks aimed at wooing back nationalists from the NDP fold, Mr. Duceppe will zero in on two of his favourite issues of late – New Democrats' alleged openness to the Energy East pipeline that would run through Quebec on its way from Alberta to New Brunswick, and their sympathy for niqab-wearing women. Both of those issues, the latter of which Mr. Harper may also join in on, place Mr. Mulcair in a delicate position, as he tries to keep Quebec supporters without alienating potential backers elsewhere in the country.

Somewhat perversely, given their usual positioning as the party least sympathetic to Quebec nationalism, Mr. Trudeau's Liberals will be quietly cheering Mr. Duceppe on, in the hope that he will create helpful vote splits.

For the Liberals, denting the NDP's support in Quebec – and besting low expectations there for their own leader – isn't just about what happens within that province. It's also about perceptions in the rest of Canada about who has the best chance of replacing the Conservatives.

Polls suggest that Mr. Trudeau's Liberals – on the strength of apparent gains in Ontario and Manitoba, resurgence in Atlantic Canada and maybe even a tightening in British Columbia – have at least caught up to the NDP in national support and possibly slightly surpassed it. If that trend continues, it could accelerate as change-seeking voters gravitate toward the opposition party perceived to have the best chance of winning.

As long as the NDP maintains a double-digit advantage in Quebec, though, the Liberals can't open up a big national gap, and the New Democrats can still argue that they have the more plausible path to power. If the NDP's Quebec lead shrinks, though, the Liberals' national lead could widen to the point where there becomes a vicious circle – including in Quebec, where the ability to beat Mr. Harper is as big a consideration as anywhere.

The Léger poll, conducted this week with 1,023 randomly selected Quebeckers participating in an online panel, put the NDP at 38 per cent in the province – down from 46 per cent in a poll conducted by the same company earlier this month. The Liberals were next in the new survey at 22 per cent, followed by the Bloc at 20 per cent and the Tories at 18 per cent.

"The NDP had the wind in their sails, but now they are facing headwinds," pollster Jean-Marc Léger told The Globe's Daniel Leblanc in an interview. "The party's support is being carved up by the [other] three parties, which each have their strengths in different parts of the province."

Beyond his ability to effectively push back on policy issues, Mr. Mulcair will face the challenge of striking the right tone as he tries to get that wind back. While he has worked hard this year to soften his public image, he has a tendency to show flashes of irritation when pressed by opponents.

Despite having a higher profile in his home province than in the rest of the country, this will still be his introduction to some voters who embraced the NDP because of the warm persona of his predecessor Jack Layton.

If he is able to outperform the other leaders on Thursday evening, or at least hold his own under attack, Mr. Mulcair may be able to firm up those voters' support and possibly regain some nationwide momentum. The alternative for his party is a much grimmer one.

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