Pollster Nik Nanos.The Globe and Mail
Nik Nanos is The Globe and Mail's pollster and chairman of Nanos Research.
Is Canada part of a Brexit Plan B for the United Kingdom?
The Leave side's victory in the referendum on European Union membership not only propels Britain onto a new and uncharted path, but has lessons for Canada. It is another manifestation of how angry voters are, as witnessed by the Donald Trump phenomenon in the United States.
Two of Canada's most important allies and friends, the United States and Britain, are now gripped in angry xenophobic politics. Significant parts of the populations want to punish political elites, look at foreigners with wary eyes and are skeptical of the forces that want to liberalize trade.
There are lessons for Canada.
First, the British referendum demonstrated a fundamental disconnect between political elites, led by Prime Minister David Cameron, and a vast swath of the country. The most eye-popping graphic was the distribution of Remain and Leave votes. London was firmly in the Remain camp and the rest of England was in the Leave camp. In effect, England is divided between its capital and the rest. And it shouldn't be a surprise, since the benefits of being in the European Union disproportionately landed in London.
Faced with a barrage of scare-mongering from Mr. Cameron on the fallout of a Brexit, the English outside London simply shrugged and probably said to themselves, "How could it get worse?" The lesson here is to stay attuned to regions outside the capital.
In Canada, the national growth numbers mask the fact that some regions, such as the Maritimes, are economically struggling, with a working population projected to decline and flat economic numbers. The lesson here is that Canada is more than Toronto and Montreal, and the Liberals should be cautious that their "sunny ways" may come to be viewed by some as evidence of a potential disconnect with angry voters in the regions.
Second, what is a rejection of European integration may in fact be a significant opportunity for Canada and even the Commonwealth. Soon after the Leave side won, Britain's High Commissioner to Canada, Howard Drake, said the U.K. was open to having a free trade deal with Canada. It's no coincidence that this was quickly put in the public domain and likely lays track for a new direction for Britain.
Polling recently conducted in Canada by Nanos for the Royal Commonwealth Society suggests that Canadians are quite open to the concept of unrestricted visa-free travel between the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. A majority of citizens in each country agree with such a concept.
Boris Johnson, the leader of the Leave forces in the Conservative caucus and leading successor to Mr. Cameron, has been on the record saying that "as we reconsider Britain's place in the world, I want us to reconsider how we engage with Commonwealth people."
What's clear is that the Leave forces who railed against the EU have an alternative in mind, one that it is more Commonwealth-oriented. Of note, it would seem that their definition of the Commonwealth is narrow – namely, partners such as Canada, Australia and New Zealand that are most like Britain.
The Brexit vote should be seen as a warning and an opportunity for Canada. It is critical that our politicians remain grounded and ensure that policies connect with citizens and also look to benefit the greatest number of Canadians possible – with the key question "How does this benefit Canadians?" answered to mute similar anger and disconnectedness manifesting itself in Britain and United States.
On the flip side of the coin, the pro-Brexit vote could be a key opportunity for Canada to renew its relationship with Britain and to further diversify our opportunities for economic prosperity.