Britain stands to lose the most if Canada-EU trade talks tank

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Why was David Cameron more upbeat than Stephen Harper when discussing the Canada-European trade negotiations? Maybe because he knows that Europe needs this deal every bit as much as Canada.

And maybe because the British prime minister needs it even more than other European leaders.

Mr. Cameron remained confident at Tuesday's closing G8 press conference that the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between Canada and the European Union will get done, even though Mr. Harper failed in talks with his European counterparts to reach an agreement during his week-long trip to Europe.

The negotiations are "really, nearly over," Mr. Cameron told reporters. Although there "wasn't quite enough flexibility, right here, to do the final deal," he remains convinced that ""we are down to the last few yards and I'm sure it will be done."

Why is he so confident? Because "it is in everyone's interest to get it done and dusted before other things start kicking off," he said.

Those "other things" are trade talks between the European Union and the United States, which were formally launched at this week's G8.

For his part, Mr. Harper was more circumspect in assessing the state of the talks. "We should stay at the table until we get a deal that's in the best interest of Canadians," he said at the concluding press conference. "We're not quite there but we continue to make progress and we continue to be committed to progress."

Meanwhile, both sides are trading barbs. A report in the Globe Tuesday, citing unnamed sources, said "bureaucratic infighting among European Union officials" was undermining a final agreement.

EU trade spokesman John Clancy fired back: " The EU has shown pragmatism and flexibility and is ready to take the last steps to achieve a political breakthrough in the negotiations. We have been awaiting a similar message from Canada."

An International Trade spokesman returned the volley, saying that Canada was bargaining in good faith and expected the same from the EU.

Discouraging.

Mr. Cameron, it would seem, is the most optimistic guy around. Perhaps it is case of the wish being father to the thought. Or perhaps Mr. Cameron recognizes the stakes.

If Canada and the EU can't negotiate an agreement that satisfies the concerns of the 10 provincial governments and the 27 states within the European Union, what chance would the Europeans and Americans have of making a similar deal?

After all, while the Obama administration won't need the approval of 50 state governors to ratify a trade treaty, it will require the approval of both houses of Congress, provided the administration obtains the "fast-track" authority it is seeking. And European leaders, the French especially, will be wary of opening their markets–including cultural industries–to the American behemoth.

Regional and sectoral interests, in other words, could undermine a EU-US deal as surely as they could a Canada-EU deal. The Europeans need CETA to show the Americans that the European Community and a federal state can reach and ratify an agreement.

Of course, Mr. Harper also needs a deal. He has staked his government's reputation for economic competence on it. Defeat would be a major blow.

If failure would be a failure for everyone, then that would suggest the odds favour success.

Still, disarray within one camp or the other, rising emotions, sudden about-faces can derail the best-laid plans. And besides, there might be another reason for Mr. Cameron's sunny talk.

He has a large contingent of anti-Europe MPs within his party, and growing anti-Europe sentiment within the population. If the Canada-EU talks tanked, it would bolster the little-Englanders within caucus and country.

Mr. Cameron needs this agreement to show that Britain's future lies within Europe. But if CETA fails, setting the EU-US talks up for failure as well, then the case for Europe gets weaker.

And that must be a problem that Mr. Cameron would rather avoid.