The federal Liberals were beaming last week when they announced that nearly 300,000 Canadians – or just under 1 per cent of the nation's population – are eligible to vote in the upcoming leadership race. The numbers represent the first real glimpse of Liberal base support across the country since the last election. So which ridings are mobilized behind Liberals, and which are falling behind?
Comparing the membership figures against each riding's population, we can see the highest levels of support came from ridings around Toronto, Ottawa, southern B.C. and the East coast.
Liberal strongholds like Cardigan and Cape Breton—Canso have some of the highest figures. But other ridings had surprisingly high support, too, like Acadie—Bathurst in New Brunswick, which registered 3.25 per cent of the population despite losing to the NDP by more than 25,000 votes last election.
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Across the country
On average, Liberals managed to register 0.8 per cent of each riding's population. Which ridings performed better or worse than this benchmark? The map below shows huge swaths of Canada have lower-than-average support (in red), including the bulk of almost every province. (Click any riding on the map to see more information. Explore a full screen version.)
Ridings with surprisingly low recruitment include Honoré-Mercier in Quebec, which voted for the Liberals in three previous elections until they were unseated by the NDP in 2011. They registered only 424 people (0.39 per cent), despite more than 14,000 votes for the Liberals in 2011.
Six Liberal ridings also registered lower-than-average support, the worst being Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel in Quebec, which registered only 586 residents (0.54 per cent) despite beating the NDP by about 5,000 votes in 2011.
Ontario: Toronto and Ottawa
While most of Ontario is lower than average, many ridings in and around Toronto scored higher than 0.8 per cent. The Liberals managed to register 3.25 per cent of Mississauga–Brampton South, a three-time Liberal riding that fell to the Conservatives by some 5,000 votes in 2011. Mobilizing the base in these ridings will be key to victory in the next election.
Liberals also managed to register 2.5 per cent of Ottawa Centre, a strong performance considering the NDP trounced them at the polls in 2011 by a margin of more than 20,000 votes.
British Columbia
B.C. was home to some of the largest support in Canada, with ridings around Vancouver, Richmond and Surrey all scoring more than 2 per cent.
East Coast
Liberal support was relatively strong on the East Coast during the last election and membership figures reflect that. All but five ridings showed higher-than-average support for the Liberals, including every riding in P.E.I. Only ridings that were clear victories for the Conservatives or NDP last election scored lower than average.