Trump holds strong and other key takeaways from the latest presidential primaries

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Donald Trump scored more big wins. John Kasich showed signs of life. Marco Rubio's campaign entered its death throes. And Hillary Clinton struggled with Bernie Sanders more than was supposed to be the case.

Because delegates were awarded proportionately, meaning it was hard for any of the candidates to really pull away from the others, Tuesday's primary contests received less advance hype than the March 15 winner-take-all votes in Ohio, Florida and Illinois. But the biggest of them, Michigan, and to a lesser extent Mississippi, nevertheless helped establish key narratives heading into next week.

Trump is holding strong

Heading into Tuesday's votes, there was speculation that Mr. Trump's momentum might be fading. The populist billionaire endured a rough debate last Thursday. That seemed to be reflected slightly in moderately disappointing primary and caucus results this past weekend. And a panicked Republican establishment had unleashed an enormous barrage of advertising against him.

So much for all that. In Michigan, the day's most important battleground, Mr. Trump scored a comfortable win, at roughly the same level the polls had him before his supposedly bad week. As in previous primaries, he benefited heavily from a divided field that helped mitigate the majority of Republican voters strongly opposing him. But that won't take away the symbolism of him winning a state that all but epitomizes the white blue-collar rage to which he has been playing – a state that, he will no doubt remind voters, would be huge for his party to win in a general election.

Kasich has a chance to be the establishment candidate

Republican elites who can't stand Mr. Trump, and aren't much more bullish on Mr. Cruz, had put their hopes in Marco Rubio – particularly after Jeb Bush's campaign mercifully ended. But Mr. Rubio's campaign is rapidly circling the drain. In the latest of his many electoral disappointments of recent weeks, he finished a distant fourth in Michigan – well short of the 15-per-cent threshold needed to be awarded at least a few delegates. He did even worse in Mississippi. If he doesn't win his home state of Florida next week, he will be out.

Ohio Governor John Kasich, whose comparatively moderate conservatism may be a better fit with more-traditional Republicans to begin with, now has a narrow opportunity to step into the anybody-but-Trump role despite still not having won a single primary.

Running neck and neck with Mr. Cruz for second place in Michigan, after a modest surge in the past week or so, sets him up well for next week's winner-take-all primary on his own turf, which is the contest for which he has been staying in the race. He could then argue that he is the candidate best able to compete in Rust Belt states that will pave the path to the presidency, and hold out hope that he could bolster that case by winning the Pennsylvania primary in late April.

There is no chance that Mr. Kasich will win the most delegates heading into this summer's Republican National Convention; his hope is to help hold Mr. Trump to a minority of those delegates, then emerge as the consensus choice on the convention floor. It's a long shot at best, but it's ever-so-slightly more plausible after Michigan than it was before. Then again, in a race in which outsider status is prized as much as anything, signs of the nebulous establishment moving toward him in the days ahead could be a mixed blessing.

Evangelicals aren't coming through (enough) for Cruz

Mr. Cruz is supposed to be enough of a favourite of the religious right to win states where evangelicals make up much of the Republican electorate. But Mr. Trump continues to do surprisingly well with that crowd – and continued to do so on Tuesday, despite predictions that recent vulgarity, unusual even by his standards, would finally turn it off.

Exit polls suggested that approximately three-quarters of voters in the Republicans' Mississippi primary were white evangelicals or born-again Christians – and that Mr. Trump did a few points better among those voters than Mr. Cruz did. That wasn't as big an advantage as Mr. Trump had among non-evangelicals. But Mr. Cruz needs to win with the religious set, not just come close, if he's to have much chance.

Bernie Sanders isn't going quietly

The common perception at this point is that as the chaos continues on the Republican side, Hillary Clinton has all but locked up the Democratic nomination. And it's true that her opponent has very little chance of actually winning more delegates than her – particularly given his inability to break through with African-American voters, reflected again on Tuesday when she trounced him in Mississippi.

But Mr. Sanders's claim to speak for frustrated blue-collar corners of the country, rather than mostly just college students and champagne socialists, got a boost on Tuesday in Michigan – where he pulled off a shocking (if narrow) upset victory over Ms. Clinton. The result there stands to breathe a little extra life into his campaign. And it should be cause for concern for the likely nominee, who could be running up against a different pitch to those voters from Mr. Trump next fall.

Editor's Note: An earlier version of this story incorrectly referred to John Kasich as Dennis Kasich on first reference. This online version has been corrected.