Canada's New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Thomas Mulcair speaks at a campaign event in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, October 10, 2015.JIM YOUNG/Reuters
NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair addressed more than a thousand supporters in a Victoria convention centre on Saturday in an effort to shore up support in a part of the country where the New Democrats have one of their best hopes of gaining seats from the Conservatives.
The NDP numbers are down but the party is far from out of this race with nine days to go before the election. A Nanos Research poll released late Friday night put Mr. Mulcair's party in a statistical tie with the Conservatives. But he can't afford to lose any more ground at this juncture.
"We will be retaining and adding to the seats we have on Vancouver Island, the same way we are going to retain and add to the seats we have in Quebec," he told reporters as cheering New Democrats waved 'Stop Harper' signs behind him.
Despite the fact that he is sitting third in public opinion surveys, Mr. Mulcair appears energized and ready for the fight ahead of him. But he has also developed an air of caution and rarely goes off script to give a direct answer to questions from reporters – perhaps to prevent missteps that could cause another downward trajectory.
There was a time during this election race that it seemed the NDP would win all of the seats on the Island except for the riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands where Green Party Elizabeth May should have little trouble holding on for a second term.
Despite the slide in the polls, Mr. Mulcair and his New Democrats still appear to have plenty of support in British Columbia as well as in places like Northern Ontario. They are likely to pick up a couple of seats in Saskatoon and maybe in Edmonton. And they are still on track to keep a large number of their MPs in Quebec.
But Victoria is turning into a tight race between NDP incumbent Murray Rankin and Green party candidate Jo-Anne Roberts, a veteran CBC Radio journalist who is fighting for the preservation of the public broadcaster.
Mr. Rankin, who just barely defeated Green candidate Don Galloway in Victoria in a by-election in 2012, is one of Mr. Mulcair's closest allies in the NDP caucus and he does not want to lose him on October 19.
For many centre- and left-leaning voters, the main objective on election day will be to unseat the Conservatives and Stephen Harper. It is assumed by political observers that a significant number of those people will be inclined to vote strategically for the Liberal or New Democratic candidate in their riding who has the best chance of defeating a Conservative.
So Mr. Mulcair has been telling people through this campaign that only New Democrats can beat Mr. Harper – an assertion he makes on the basis that there are parts of the country, like Vancouver Island, where the Liberals are not strong. He also makes the point that the NDP entered the race with 95 seats, while the Liberals had just 36. "Across the country, the NDP need just 35 more seats to defeat the Conservatives," Mr. Mulcair told the crowd in Victoria. "The Liberals need over 100 seats."
That assumes, however, that the NDP will hang on to all of the seats they had at dissolution – which is no sure thing, especially if they lose in places like Victoria.
Still, the NDP Leader publicly exudes confidence.
"We've never been closer to bringing change to Ottawa," Mr. Mulcair assured his faithful. "Over the next nine days we must do everything we can to defeat Stephen Harper and deliver the change we've been waiting for."