NDP Leader Jack Layton speaks at a news conference in Quebec City.
Two developments in Quebec since last week's French-language leaders' debate could have a substantial impact on the outcome of the May 2 federal election - and both of them are good news for the Conservatives.
Last weekend, for the first time in six years, the Parti Québécois held a convention, where 1,700 delegates gave Leader Pauline Marois a mandate to prepare for another referendum on sovereignty should the PQ win the next provincial election. An unprecedented 93 per cent of péquistes voted to express their confidence in Ms. Marois, who quickly urged her party to begin preparing for the next vote by setting up a "powerful election machine."
Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe delivered a speech at the convention in which he said that with the election of an overwhelming number of Bloc candidates, coupled with an eventual PQ government in Quebec, "everything becomes possible again."
The reaction from the other parties was swift. Conservative Leader Stephen Harper used the apparent renewed threat of sovereignty as another argument in his call for a majority Conservative government, saying it was the best way to defend against the breakup of the country. And in the same breath, he rejected the need to open a new dialogue on the constitutional front to debate Quebec's demands.
Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff said the Conservatives were "not equipped" to fight sovereigntists because Tory values contradict those of Quebeckers. Then Mr. Ignatieff argued that Quebeckers weren't interested in fighting another constitutional battle, let alone one on the subject of independence.
For the longest time, the typical naive reaction in the rest of Canada was that if you ignore it long enough, sovereignty would just fall off the political map. The reaction from the federalist camp reinforced that notion and fuelled Mr. Duceppe's efforts at galvanizing nationalist voters, many of whom stayed home in the last election.
But the Bloc failed to foresee the sudden emergence of the NDP as a political force in Quebec. Two public-opinion polls this week confirmed the rise of the NDP to second place, ahead of the Liberals and the Conservatives.
And it was fascinating to watch right-wing pundits in Quebec suddenly embrace NDP Leader Jack Layton as an interesting alternative, even though New Democratic policies are light years away from anything they've been calling for.
The reason for the ostensible about-face is simple: The more the progressive forces that have normally supported the Bloc Québécois turn to the NDP, the greater the chance for Conservatives in the province to hold on to their seats.
By promoting separatism as a campaign issue, Mr. Duceppe may succeed in persuading some disillusioned sovereigntists to support him again at the ballot box. But the potential gain was being jeopardized by progressive nationalists abandoning the Bloc in favour of the NDP.
It won't likely translate into more seats for Mr. Layton in Quebec, but it will be enough to split the progressive vote and give the edge to Conservative candidates. And that explains the Bloc's increasingly nervous reaction to the sudden NDP surge - which is now threatening whatever hopes it had in winning more ridings this time than the 47 out of the 75 Quebec seats it held when the election was called.
Rhéal Séguin