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CAMPAIGN NOTEBOOK

By Adam Radwanski (@aradwanski)

Stephen Harper does not always have the most reassuring appearance on television, which might be part of the reason he's featured so little in Conservative TV advertising this federal election. But he has a very good voice for radio, and his party has been making interesting use of it in the campaign's final weeks.

Each day, the Tories have been putting out (and placing across a wide variety of radio formats) a new ad featuring Mr. Harper speaking directly to listeners, with no other voices and few frills. This past Sunday, it was a Thanksgiving message about "what really matters," with Mr. Harper highlighting key planks of his platform. Monday's was a more concise rundown of a few economic policies, while Tuesday's was a narrower pitch on income splitting. On Wednesday, audiences are hearing him talk about a specific family worried about losing child benefits under the Liberals.

In each of the spots, Mr. Harper notes how many days remain before election day. And he always ends by saying "We'll talk again tomorrow," or some variation thereof.

All federal parties continue to make heavy use of commercial radio (however unsexy others may consider it), largely because they appreciate its relative affordability and nimbleness. That usually means being able to easily send different messages to different markets. In this case, the Tories – who especially like the format, because both its listenership and their support base skew older – are using it to deliver many different messages to each market and demographic, with less variation on any given day.

The Tories believe that the directness of Mr. Harper's daily messages stands out and creates a sense of intimacy with listeners. Whatever happens on Oct. 19 – which, as Mr. Harper will remind listeners today, is just five days away – the ads seem a clever way of trying to cut through the noise.

DAILY TRACKING FROM NANOS RESEARCH

Nik Nanos: "Liberals have seven point lead in closing week of campaign."

> Conservatives: 29.2 per cent (down 2.9 from last week)

> NDP: 24.5 per cent (up 1.5 from last week)

> Liberals: 36.1 per cent (up 1.8 from last week)

> Green: 4.3 per cent (down 0.3 from last week)

> Bloc: 5.2 per cent (up 0.1 from last week)

Nanos conducts daily tracking for The Globe and Mail and CTV. A three-day rolling sample of 1,200 Canadians are contacted through phone (cell and landline). The margin of error is 2.8 points. Click here for Nanos methodology.

WHAT YOU SHOULD KNOW THIS MORNING

By Chris Hannay (@channay)

> The Liberals are targeting progressive voters in a bid to steal NDP support in key Ontario ridings, laying bare the intense battle between the two parties.

> The NDP aren't making any deals with the Liberals until the ballots are cast, Thomas Mulcair says.

> Ontario Premier Kathleen Wynne is continuing to lend Justin Trudeau a hand.

> Conservatives say Stephen Harper is drawing smaller crowds because they're focused on getting volunteers door-knocking (though it didn't keep Rob and Doug Ford away).

> And your odd campaign story for the day: The New Democrats are accusing the Liberals of spreading false rumours that an NDP candidate is dying.

TODAY'S ELECTION SIMULATION

The Conservatives lose many Ontario, N.B., and B.C. seats to win a small plurality of 120 seats -- leaving it up in the air how long they will survive in government next to a 114-seat Liberal caucus, bolstered by 92 New Democrats. Try your hand at our simulator and find out what could happen if an election were held today.

Overall, the Liberals currently have a 54 per cent chance of winning the most seats.

WHERE THE LEADERS ARE

Conservative Leader Stephen Harper will make a speech in Brantford, Ont., at noon.

NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair is in Dartmouth, N.S., in the morning for a town hall, before heading to L'Assomption, Que., in the afternoon.

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau sticks to Ontario today, visiting Hamilton in the morning, Welland and St. Catharines in the afternoon and Ajax in the evening.

TRANSLATING VOTES INTO SEATS

Even if the Liberals and Conservatives won the same number of votes next week, Stephen Harper's party is still more likely to win more seats. Paul Fairie explains why.

WHAT EVERYONE'S TALKING ABOUT

"If the current poll results worry Conservative Leader Stephen Harper, another number represents his biggest obstacle: 170, the number of seats it takes to win a majority in the Commons. The politics of the next minority Parliament will make it hard for him to hold onto power, even if he has the biggest block of seats." – Campbell Clark on the Conservatives.

Jeffrey Simpson (Globe and Mail): "The persona of Mr. Harper, more than anything else, is the centre of the Conservative campaign, and therefore the campaign is about him, more than anything else."

Lysiane Gagnon (Globe and Mail): "It's almost unbelievable that so much has changed in voters' perceptions of the Liberals in just three months."

Lawrence Martin (Globe and Mail): "How remarkably ironic would it be if the offspring of the prime minister who helped to create Mr. Harper is now the one who takes him down?"

Michael Den Tandt (Postmedia): "Harper designed his policies for winnability, so why isn't he winning this election?"

LOOKAHEAD: WHAT TO EXPECT THIS WEEK

Leaders are campaigning furiously in the lead-up to the vote next Monday.

The election is in 5 days.

This newsletter is produced by Chris Hannay and Steve Proceviat.


Welcome to the new Globe Politics newsletter! Read more about the changes and let us know what you think.

Editor's note: an earlier version incorrectly said the NDP's poll numbers today were down 1.5 over last week. In fact, they are up 1.5 points.

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