Stephen Harper's miscalculation on the census has resuscitated Michael Ignatieff's Liberals with the two parties now deadlocked, according to a new poll.
Released Thursday morning, the EKOS survey delivers nothing but bad news for the Tories, showing their support reduced to a narrow base of hardcore older Western males. This, as they bleed support from women, young people and university educated Canadians.
Quebec is now "scorched earth" for the Conservatives. The EKOS numbers indicate the party would be reduced to one seat from the 11 they now hold in that province.
It's all because of the government's decision to scrap the mandatory long-form census, pollster Frank Graves says.
"The direct testing suggests that the census initiative has gone over with a massive thud," he said. "It is receiving near universal raspberries from a flummoxed electorate."
The poll gives the Conservatives 29.4 per cent support of Canadians, a drop of three points from two weeks ago. The Liberals are at 29.1 per cent support, an increase of nearly two points from the previous poll.
New Democrats are at 15.7 per cent national support, the Green Party is polling at 13 per cent and the Bloc is at 10.9 per cent. The poll of 3,559 Canadians was conducted between Aug. 18 and Aug. 31; it has a margin of error of 1.64 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The 11-point lead the Tories enjoyed over the Liberals at the beginning of summer is gone. And the timing of this survey couldn't be worse for the Tories as the government prepares to return to the House this month. It comes, too, as Mr. Harper is attempting to make his case for a majority government.
"It is rather ironic that the PM would be finally talking explicitly about the need for a Conservative majority in the same week as his government fails to crack 30 points," Mr. Graves said. "One wonders how the strategic value of this ballot framing works when his government would be on the cusp of losing power altogether [if there was an election now]"
The pollster gives only a small measure of credit to the Liberal Leader for the change in fortunes. "The [Michael Ignatieff]travelling redemption show has brought back MI and the LPC from life support to fully fledged contenders for next government," Mr. Graves said. "In fairness the new parity is as much a product of Tory largesse to their competitors as adroit action on part of the Liberals."
The Tory largesse to which Mr. Graves refers is, of course, the census. For weeks now it has dogged the Conservatives, gradually picking away at the party's support, even with its own supporters.
"This seemingly obscure action has set in motion a chain of responses, which has managed to awaken the erstwhile dormant knowledge and professional classes," the pollster said. "Virtually all of the shift in the political landscape has occurred with the movement of the highly educated."
Previous EKOS surveys have shown that university-educated Canadians are leaving the Tory fold for the Liberals because of the census. But what should be more disturbing for Mr. Harper and his Conservative team are the concerns with the direction he is taking the government.
The poll shows 40.6 per cent of Canadians say it is going in the right direction; 48.2 per cent say it is going in the wrong direction. "Obviously, the census itself isn't a ballot booth issue but it has stoked concerns about the values and management style of the current government."
As for the Liberals, Mr. Graves notes that inroads have been made but Mr. Ignatieff is still not clicking with Canadians. The Liberal Leader remains "unconvincing" to the general public.
The pollster notes, too, that the parties were tied last fall. But that was before the Prime Minister's virtuoso performance of a Beatles tune at a National Arts Centre gala, after which the Tories surged to a 16-poin lead in the polls last October.
"Perhaps the PM should consider rebooking the NAC for return engagement," Mr. Graves said.