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1. 'The electorate is mildly polarizing.' Canadians are squeezing out Jack Layton's New Democrats as the gap widens between his party and the two front-running parties, according to a new EKOS poll.
The latest survey, released Thursday morning, supports what other recent polls have shown - a worrisome decline for the NDP, which faces the possibility of slipping behind the Green Party.
The NDP is now at 13.5 per cent support compared to the 16.6 per cent support they enjoyed in the EKOS poll two weeks ago. Mr. Layton's position on the long-gun registry - in which he refused to demand his MPs support it - may, in part, explain the decline.
Elizabeth May and her Greens, meanwhile, are within spitting distance of the NDP with 10.9 per cent, up slightly from the 10.7 per cent support they polled two weeks ago.
And the poll also shows that Stephen Harper's Conservatives and Michael Ignatieff's Liberals have a huge lead over the NDP and Greens, polling at 33.1 per cent for the Tories compared to 29.9 per cent for the Grits. Both parties experienced slight gains from the last EKOS poll (32.4 per cent compared to 28.9 per cen two weeks agot), apparently at the expense of the NDP.
"The NDP and [Green Party]both seem to be being squeezed as the electorate is mildly polarizing with the front runners," pollster Frank Graves says. "I don't think [the electorate]has written off the NDP; it's too soon to say that."
However, Mr. Graves says if the New Democrats slip further the Greens could inherit the third party role. "As time goes on, their core issue and appeal to a younger constituency may tilt things in favour of the Greens."
The pollster cautions, however, that these are still early days and the landscape could easily change. "I think the defecting NDP vote were highly-educated who have gone Liberal over concerns about guns, census, and related issues. The Liberals may be seem as a better bet to depose Harper. This may also explain downward drift of [the Green Party]"
The latest poll also shows a recent surge in support for the Tories in Quebec has come to a screeching halt.
Two weeks ago, Mr. Graves credited the Prime Minister's musings about putting money into a new hockey arena in Quebec City for pumping up his party's fortunes (the Tories enjoyed 21.1 per cent support in Quebec at that time).
But how quickly things change. Conservatives are now polling at 14.7 per cent in Quebec compared to 23.5 per cent for the Liberals, 40.1 per cent for the Bloc and 10 per cent for the NDP.
"It is plausible to speculate that their steep fall in Quebec may be linked to the gun registry debate," Mr. Graves says. "Or perhaps the disappointment of seeing dreams of NHL franchises dashed so quickly."
Meanwhile, it's game-on in Ontario. The Conservatives and Liberals are in an extremely tight race in the vote rich province, with 36.7 per cent support for the Tories compared to 35.8 per cent for the Liberals.
The poll of 2,267 Canadians was conducted between Sept. 22 and Sept. 28. It has a margin of error of 2.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
2. Shooting himself in the foot. Stephen Harper not only lost his fight to kill the long-gun registry, it now appears the registry could cost him 20 seats and his dream of a majority government, according to new seat projections based on the EKOS poll released Thursday morning.
"The gun registry battle has not set the table for an ingenious stealth majority," pollster Frank Graves says.
"Whatever possible gains that might occur in rural opposition areas would be woefully inadequate to get the CPC the 30-plus seats they would need under these numbers to secure a majority - and this is without even considering the possibility of losses in urban conservative seats now held by narrow margins."
Mr. Graves's seat projections give the Tories 123 seats, down sharply from the 143 they currently hold in the Commons. Michael Ignatieff's Liberals would earn 26 more seats, up to 102 from the 76 they have now. The NDP, which only has 36 seats now, would see their representation in the House decline to 28. The Bloc would see its fortunes increase to 54 seats from 48 in Quebec, and there would be one independent MP.
"In fact, the clear conclusion is that the Conservatives have steered away from the brink of majority at the last election," Mr. Graves says. "The current voter intention numbers would now place them numerically closer to the opposition than majority."