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Prime Minister Stephen Harper had good reason not to cross Premier Brad Wall over the proposed takeover of Potash Corp. by BHP Billiton. Mr. Wall's party enjoys the support of a majority of Saskatchewan voters and he is seen as the best man to lead the province by almost three-quarters of those surveyed, according to a new poll conducted by Sigma Analytics.

Taken during the firestorm over the proposed sale of the former Crown corporation and just before the federal government's decision to block the deal, the poll finds Mr. Wall's conservative Saskatchewan Party has the support of 57.3 per cent of voters, a gain of more than six points over the party's performance in the 2007 provincial election.

The New Democrats, led by former provincial cabinet minister Dwain Lingenfelter, follow with 29.4 per cent, a drop of almost eight points. The Liberals have the support of 8.2 per cent of Saskatchewan voters, down slightly from the 9.4 per cent the party received in the election, while the provincial Greens are up almost three points to 4.8 per cent.

The field dates for this survey ended just before Industry Minister Tony Clement's decision to block the Australian mining firm's bid. It was a hot topic for the people of Saskatchewan, about 23 per cent of whom considered it to be the top issue facing the province. Mr. Wall's successful opposition to the deal can only improve his party's electoral standing, as fully 84 per cent of those surveyed believed that the federal government made the right decision in blocking the takeover.

If there is any glimmer of hope for the opposition New Democrats in Sigma's findings, it is that 42 per cent of voters feel they are the best party to deal with health care, considered to be the most important issue facing the province by 19 per cent of respondents. However, the Saskatchewan Party receives 47 per cent support on this score, as well as 70 per cent support on the topic of economic growth. And while Mr. Lingenfelter is the best man to lead the province for only 17 per cent of Saskatchewanians, the Premier receives the support of 73 per cent.

Based on the findings of this poll, the Saskatchewan Party would likely win 42 of the province's 58 seats, handing them a second consecutive majority government and four more seats than the party won in 2007.

The New Democrats would likely be reduced from 20 to 16 seats, with their four seat losses coming in the two urban centres of Regina and Saskatoon. The provincial Liberals, who have not come out on top in any riding since the 1999 provincial election, appear unlikely to return to the Legislative Assembly when the next vote is held on or before Nov. 7, 2011.

In the provincial capital, Mr. Wall's Saskatchewan Party would be projected to win five of the 11 seats, an increase of two. It's the same story in Saskatoon, where the Saskatchewan Party would win seven seats, up from five.

As the urban vote has been the core of New Democratic support in the province, these projected seat gains are a worrisome sign for Mr. Lingenfelter. And with the government poised to make even more gains after their successful campaign against the sale of Potash Corp., the potential for an NDP collapse in the province is high.

With a little less than 12 months to go before the next provincial election and glowing from his recent potash victory, Mr. Wall looks set to comfortably win next fall and remain in office for at least one more term.

Éric Grenier writes about politics and polls at ThreeHundredEight.com

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