At the Commonwealth meeting this weekend, only one government leader is concerned about the welfare of Canada and of Canadians. And it's not the Prime Minister of Great Britain or the President of France, an invited guest. Nor will the Prime Minister of China be looking after Canadian interests in Copenhagen next month.
In the lead up to the conference, Prime Minister Harper is facing tremendous pressure to modify Canada's position. In part, that's because under successive governments one of the world's top ten emitters has done next to nothing to curb its emissions. Mostly, however, it's because Mr. Harper has aligned Canadian policy with that of the United States, and the big game at Copenhagen is to roll Barack Obama, which many international leaders, including French President Sarkozy, believe is distinctly possible.
We should keep this reality in mind as we read reports on the positions of other countries; no doubt, U.S. Senators - who must ratify any international agreement - will be doing so. For example, while we read in a table in today's Globe and Mail that China is "aiming for a reduction of 40-45 per cent per unit of GDP by 2020 from 2005 levels," the world's leading emitter is in fact still proposing to nearly double its absolute emissions, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal; moreover, the Chinese say that they would not permit any international monitoring of their performance. China also takes the position that any further reduction in emissions would have to be paid for by developed countries through an annual 1 per cent levy on their GDP which, in Canada's case, would amount to a cool $10.5-billion a year.
Mr Harper has aligned Canada's position on climate change with that of the United States, our largest trading partner, for sound economic reasons. Given the Clinton Administration's decision not to submit Kyoto for senate ratification, it also makes sense to wait and see this time whether things evolve differently. And anyone who's willing to give China and India a pass isn't truly interested in combating global warming.
This is not to say that it's not also convenient politically for the Prime Minister to link arms with Mr. Obama, who's still very popular in Canada. It's worth noting, however, that Mr. Harper's political base is not really with him: they've for years been fighting the science of global warming and have recently been re-energized by the "Climategate" leaks. To date, however, only Saudi Arabia's negotiator, Mohammad al-Sabban, has called into question the Copenhagen conference.
Mr. Harper will be facing tremendous heat in the coming weeks. To his good fortune, his approval rating - 51 per cent - is now at an all-time high, higher now than Mr. Obama's in the United States. Whether he can maintain that approval rating in the coming months remains to be seen, but it seems that, on this issue at least, the Prime Minister is prepared to spend political capital in defending Canada's interests.