Skip to main content

Everyone is assuming that the election timing is entirely at the opposition's discretion. They are of course wrong. If I were Stephen Harper (the Earth shudders) and I have concluded – reasonably – that an election is now a near inevitability, I would have two options:

1. Give the opposition two weeks to try to lay some tracks on the broad "ethics" file, but I get to deliver a budget that may or may not boost me heading into a campaign prior to being voted down; or

2. I can go to the Governor-General tomorrow morning and ask for an election.

In 2008, the Prime Minister decided to opt for the second option and did not wait to be defeated in the House. If I were Stephen Harper, given the pile of scandals that have the potential to become a dominant election issue (and there is no reason at this time to think that any of the scandals Harper is facing is harming him electorally), I think it would be foolhardy to give the opposition two extra weeks to lay tracks.

With the House in session until the budget, the Prime Minister would be little more than a piñata for two weeks. It's hard to see how this helps the Prime Minister heading into a campaign (which is different from saying that it will harm him – again, it has the potential to harm him, that's up to the opposition to do and the jury is still out).

No, if I were Harper, I would turn the budget into my platform and I would be hitting the road on an election campaign as of tomorrow morning, after a visit to Rideau Hall.

Interact with The Globe