Prime Minister Stephen Harper delivers a speech on during Parliament Hill's Christmas-lights ceremony on Dec. 2, 2010.CHRIS WATTIE/Reuters
Fresh off two by-election wins a week ago, Stephen Harper and his Conservative Party have also made some gains in the polls and are now projected to win more seats than the combined total of the Liberal and New Democratic parties. But the Prime Minister would still likely see more than a dozen of his current MPs defeated were an election held today.
According to ThreeHundredEight.com's latest vote and seat projections, the Tories now enjoy the support of 34.6 per cent of Canadians, a gain of nearly a full point since mid-November. With 29.4 per cent support, the Liberals have held steady but remain more than five points behind the Conservatives. The New Democrats have edged up slightly to 16.4 per cent support, the Bloc Québécois has 9.9 per cent support nationally, and the Greens are down slightly to 8.5 per cent support.
The Conservatives would likely win 130 seats in a snap election, a gain of three since the last projection. That's 13 seats fewer than the party currently holds in the 308-seat House of Commons. It puts the Tories out of reach of the combined 125 seats the Liberals and New Democrats are projected to win, but also well below the 155 seats needed for a majority government.
Dropping two seats from the last set of numbers but up 19 from their current stable of MPs, the Liberals are projected to win 96 seats. The New Democrats have lost one and are now projected to win 29 seats, a reduction of seven from their present block in the House of Commons. The Bloc Québécois would increase its caucus to 53 MPs from 47, unchanged from the last set of projections.
While this electoral result would give the Liberals more clout in Parliament, Mr. Harper and his Conservatives would still hold the advantage, able to turn to either the New Democrats or Bloc for support to get legislation passed against Grit opposition. The narrow margin, however, virtually ensures an even more raucous political theatre than the one we see today.
Tory gains on both coasts
In battleground Ontario, the Conservatives have made a modest gain and now lead with 37.4 per cent, enough to get them 48 seats in the province, one more than in the last projection. But their lead is very slim, as the Liberals have also gained and are projected to take 36.7 per cent of the vote and 46 seats. The New Democrats are well behind with 16.2 per cent and 12 seats.
While the seat totals in Quebec remain unchanged, the vote has shifted with 0.7-point gains for both the Bloc Québécois (38.7 per cent) and Liberals (24.2 per cent). Both the Conservatives and New Democrats have slipped, and now trail with 16.3 per cent and 13 per cent respectively.
In British Columbia, the Conservatives have gained two seats and almost two points since the last projection, and now lead comfortably with 35.7 per cent support and 19 seats. The New Democrats are still competitive at 26.1 per cent, but the Liberals have slipped more than one point and are now at 24 per cent support. Both the Liberals and New Democrats have lost a B.C. seat to the Tories.
Though Michael Ignatieff and his Liberals still lead in Atlantic Canada with 37.4 per cent and a projected 19 seats, the Conservatives have made their largest gains here. Up more than two points, Mr. Harper's party is projected to take 33.3 per cent of the vote and nine seats, with much of their gain coming at the expense of the New Democrats.
There has been little movement in Alberta, but the Liberals have gained a seat in the Prairies and are now projected to win five. Trailing the Conservatives by 44.4 per cent to 23.3 per cent here, Mr. Ignatieff has edged out the New Democrats for second place in the region, a state of affairs aptly demonstrated by the party's by-election win in Winnipeg North last week.
ThreeHundredEight.com's vote and seat projection model uses a rolling, weighted average of polling results and includes the latest data from polls taken since Nov. 17 by EKOS Research, as well as polls taken prior to that date. Polls are weighted by sample size, age, and records of pollster accuracy, with larger and newer polls given greater weight.
Éric Grenier writes about politics and polls at ThreeHundredEight.com