Signs for NDP candidate Craig Scott and Liberal rival Grant Gordon adorn Jack Layton's former riding of Toronto-Danforth ahead of a by-election on March 19, 2012.RICHARD PLUME
Five days before someone will succeed Jack Layton as NDP leader, voters in Mr. Layton's old riding will decide who will take his seat in Parliament.
There are 11 candidates vying to represent the intensely urban and traditionally left-leaning riding of Toronto-Danforth. But it has passed back and forth between the Liberals and New Democrats since it was created in 1979 and no one expects this election to break that pattern.
Polls conducted in the weeks before voting day suggested Craig Scott, the NDP candidate, had a lead that was almost insurmountable. But Grant Gordon, the Liberal candidate, insists he has come on strong and that he has a chance of prevailing.
In fact, the Liberals have invested much political capital in this race. Interim Leader Bob Rae, who actually held the riding for the New Democrats when he was an MP in the late '70s and early '80s, was campaigning with Mr. Gordon on Monday.
Justin Trudeau has also helped Mr. Gordon canvass in Toronto-Danforth. So have MPs Stéphane Dion and Carolyn Bennett. The riding was, after all, held by Liberal Dennis Mills for 16 years until Mr. Layton unseated him in 2004 by a margin of just over 2,300 votes.
The Liberals have much to gain by a win. Having been reduced to 34 seats from 77 in the spring, they are eager to demonstrate that they still have some life. And, for Mr. Rae in particular, a victory would send a message that his leadership could mark a turning point in party fortunes.
Mr. Gordon, an upbeat political neophyte who heads a marketing firm that promotes ethical products and causes, is preaching policy that is socially positive and environmentally stable.
He is also taking aim at Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
"A lot of people are asking 'Hey Grant, why are you running, why are you insane enough to want to become a politician," he says in a video posted to his website. "The first two reasons are simple. One: Stephen. Two: Harper. Enough said."
But, even if that message resonates with voters, Mr. Gordon is fighting two New Democrats – Mr. Scott, a low-key law professor and human-rights activist, and the legacy of Mr. Layton who was widely revered before he succumbed to cancer last August and who won the riding with more than 60 per cent of the vote in the election last spring.
And, as much as the two men would like to differentiate themselves to voters, their message is much the same.
Like Mr. Gordon, Mr. Scott has made Mr. Harper his prime target.
"This election is about choosing who is best to take on Stephen Harper and the Conservatives in the House of Commons," he says in a message. "On every issue that matters, The Harper Conservatives are on the wrong track. I want you to send me to Ottawa to fight for a cleaner environment, stronger public health care, real retirement security [and]protecting good Canadian jobs."
The big question is whether Mr. Scott can replicate Mr. Layton's success. Or, did the cult of Jack perish along with its leader?
Recent polls suggest the Orange Wave that the New Democrats rode to the seats of the Official Opposition last May has ebbed. The Bloc Québécois has been resurging in Quebec. And an NDP MP has defected to the Liberals.
A win here would be a boost of confidence for the person who is selected to lead the party on Saturday. But a loss would cast a pall over the convention and NDP fortunes going forward.
Political scientist Nelson Wiseman of the University of Toronto says he is confident that the New Democrats will hold the riding. But victory is also critical to the party, he said.
"If they can't hold on to their seat in Toronto-Danforth," Prof. Wiseman said, "that suggests they can't win more than 10 or 15 seats in English Canada in an election."